After a marathon day yesterday crisis between the euro area and global economic issues, the G20 continues this Friday at Cannes. Nicolas Sarkozy, master of ceremonies, will have his hands between preparations for the final communiqué and placed under international trusteeship of Italy payday loans no teletrack.
"Reliving the day Thursday
Household consumption, the traditional driver of French growth, declined in September. It fell 0.5% last month, according to figures from INSEE published on Friday, after rising 0.2% in August. Despite this poor performance, the third quarter remains positive consumption rose 0.2% after a particularly bleak picture of the second quarter this indicator fell by 1.9%.
In September, it is the purchase of textile-leather and energy costs which have lowered consumption. These expenditures have dropped respectively by 4.7% and 4% last month, a much greater decline than in previous months. For the textile sector, the wrong number "announcement of hard times," Judge Camille Williencourt, an economist at Natixis. It points out that consumption fell by 17% in this sector since the second quarter of 2007.The position of the energy suffers for his back spending for petroleum products. During the quarter, energy consumption is still rising sharply (+3.3%), after falling 2.1% in the second quarter.
Increase in car purchases
On a positive note, the consumption of durable goods, which partly reflects consumer confidence in the future, has rebounded. After falling 0.3% in August, it rose 1.9% last month. The quarter proved generally positive 0.4%, after falling 6.2% in the second quarter. A strong performance driven by car purchases (2.8% in September) and household equipment (1.3% in September from 2.7% in August). "During the quarter, automotive expenses are stable after a fall of 11% in the second quarter," notes INSEE.A sign that the industry "is recovering gradually, after a very poor second quarter impacted by the decision of the cash for clunkers," said Camille Williencourt.
INSEE had Tuesday reported an unexpected improvement of consumer confidence in October. Indeed, they are much less likely to anticipate a rise in unemployment – although the statistics published this week have reported a record high – and are optimistic that this summer on their future standard of living. Other anticipation apparently bodes well for the consumption of the end of the year, they were also more likely to feel the need to make major purchases. But despite these positive developments, "consumer sentiment remains generally depressed, said Helene Baudchon, economist at BNP Paribas, well below its long-term average of 100."
The publication of the sales of LVMH this morning, showing a 15% increase in sales in the first nine months of the year, shows that the luxury sector is beyond the gloom. It is now concentrated around a very small number of listed companies. To play the stock market, investors in Europe the choice of three values: LVMH and Hermes International in France and the Swiss Richemont, owner of brands including Cartier, Montblanc, Alfred Dunhill and Lancel.
In exchange, these groups are distinguished by the same characteristics. First of all, a very strong sales growth which is an essential element of appreciation to investors at a time when fears of a slowdown are increasingly strong in manufacturing and services.Markets expect according to the consensus published by Bloomberg in a 19.2% increase in sales of LMVH this year, against only 10.2% growth on average for the CAC 40 companies (excluding financials). Hermès expectations are even higher (25%). Richemont is penalized by the rise of the Swiss franc, but the market expects (excluding currency effects) to a 19% increase in sales, a level equivalent to that of the previous year.
Good resilience to the crisis
Most of the increase in sales due to the presence of these groups in emerging markets where growth remains strong. LVMH achieves almost 40% of its sales in Asia and the region at Hermès International represented 45.3% of sales in the first half to 590.9 million euros.Although the annual rate of China's growth fell from 9.5 to 9.1% in late September, the outlook for luxury business are very well oriented in these regions.
This exceptional situation leads to multiple capitalization rates of 16.5 and 16.8 times earnings expected for 2011 for LVMH and Richemont, which places them at levels much higher than the 8.6 expected for the CAC 40. Hermes is the subject of recurring rumors of a takeover bid, particularly on the part of LVMH, is paid for his part more than 48 times earnings estimates for the current year. In exchange, a high multiple is certainly synonymous with vulnerability, but in the minds of investors, it is clearly synonymous with exceptional value.
Result, in contrast to Richemont who suffer from the appreciation of the Swiss franc, most of these titles were very well in the market downturn.The course of LVMH declined only 9.4% since the beginning of the year and one of Hermes International prances among the highest growth of the year with a 50% increase since 1 January. While much of this increase was due to speculative buying, what are the prospects for growth and profitability that reassure investors.
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On the menu of the G20 Finance, the crisis of the euro area and the slowing world economy wiped out all other subjects dear to President Nicolas Sarkozy. Reform the international monetary system to reduce the large global imbalances. At the summit this Friday in Paris, the finance ministers of major economic powers should demand accountability from their counterparts in the euro area.
Statements prior to the summit leaves no room for doubt. The leaders of the G20 countries are working on a short-term plan to stop the economic downturn and reduce the impact of the crisis in the euro area, said a Canadian official on his way to Paris. The G20 will not replace the euro area in the resolution of the Greek crisis, however, he warned.
"The meetings focus on how to increase the resources available to deal with the crisis and stabilize the markets", said Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Zhu. The Europeans would like to see the great powers increase the resources of the IMF so that it can lend more to countries in the eurozone in trouble. "Of course they want, the Chinese Minister has responded. But we have just discussed. "Understand: nothing has been decided to date.
"The resources of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF, the support mechanism in the euro area) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be inadequate if the contagion (of the crisis in the euro area) continued" said Pravin Gordhan Finance Minister of South Africa on Friday.In this case, the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) "indicated that they would be likely to support international institutions if they were asked no fax payday advances."
No decisions
The G20 finance ministers this Friday should not result in decisions, the Canadian official has warned. Rather it is to prepare the final summit of the French Presidency of the G20, on 3-4 November in Cannes, which will bring together heads of states of representing 85% of the global economy. "Europeans should explore the support that this Friday is prepared to give them their Chinese counterparts, American and Japanese decrypts Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale CIB.Investors hope the G20 in November resulted in a plan likely to change that. "
Meanwhile, finance ministers French, Italian and German should have the barrage of questions from their peers about their response to the crisis. "The adverse consequences of delaying the solution are just bigger," expressed concern Thursday Lael Brainard, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary for International Affairs "Given the growing risks that threaten the recovery, the U.S. will intensified their call for determined action. "The Europeans are on notice: they must find a solution to the crisis at their next summit, Sunday, October 23.
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(Special Envoy to Florence)
The tax collectors, 1540, Marinus van Reymerswaele personal business card. (Florence, Museo Stibbert)
LE FIGARO – You met President Nicolas Sarkozy Friday. What is your analysis of the crisis in the euro area?
Pedro Passos Coelho – Our views are converging. We must accelerate the process of ratifying the plan in July that the EU speaks with one voice. It is essential to avoid systemic risk. How to convince the markets where European leaders expressed doubts on the future of Europe! It must be absolutely avoided, it is better to be silent than to sow doubt.
Would it be better to organize the failure of Greece?
I refuse to make predictions, I'd rather be patient and hope that Athens takes its objectives and carry out sustainable reforms. If Greece dark, the entire EU to be at risk.We need to help Greece and at the same time strengthen the EU, to establish a more integrated economic government which deals with taxation.
What are the consequences in Portugal of the deepening crisis in Greece?
Portugal is in a vulnerable position vis-à-vis Greece. If the crisis worsens, it will make our recovery process more difficult. My vision is very pragmatic: we must make every effort to carry out reforms and fiscal consolidation.
Economists doubt your ability to meet commitments on fiscal 2011?
The aid package was negotiated before the elections. Since then we have taken additional steps preventive and our calendar of spending cuts is more ambitious. We have the political support for it.We will keep the target of 5.9% of GDP deficit in 2011 and are targeting a primary surplus (excluding debt service) in 2012 for a balanced budget in 2015 and an external account deficit by half a point against 9% last year. In addition to the expenditure side and the privatization plan, we will conduct several structural reforms, justice, labor market, too rigid regulation. We will create a board of public finances, which will be independent to ensure full transparency in the management of the state.
Where are you from privatization?
We are to remove the golden shares held by the state in public enterprises, then we will begin the process of privatization in the energy sector by mid-November, by selling the companies for electricity, gas and oil, which Galp.We will then proceed to the privatization of the airline TAP, the airport manager Ana, mail, freight rail and radio station public television RTP. The whole process should be finalized in late 2012, the objective to recover at least 7 billion euros.
Have you received expressions of investors?
Yes, many, from the European economies but also emerging countries, Brazil, China and several Arab countries bad credit unsecured personal loans.The president of the National Bank of Economic Development in Brazil (BNDSE), the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, Lula and his predecessor have already come to us with investor interest in Brazil.
This interest is there also for the government debt?
The purchase of public debt is subject to specific rules, but the important thing is that there were demonstrations of confidence in this government about the quality of Portuguese debt.
Will you create a wealth tax, such as Spain prepares to do?
We refused this solution, not to discourage large fortunes to come and settle in Portugal. However, we have created a special tax of solidarity that will help tackle the portion of 2.5% marginal tax on income that will affect higher wages and will last two years.We also created an additional tax of 3% on business profits in excess of 1.5 million euros, also for two years. The purpose of these taxes is not to create an additional revenue but to allow us to finance social assistance measures for families hit hardest by the crisis.
What are these measures?
They are primarily related to housing. Households that can no longer repay their debts to buy their apartments can contact their bank for the loan to be converted into low-rent, which will relieve the financially while allowing them to remain at home. Similarly, those earning up to one and a half times the minimum wage benefit from using public transport.In addition, if we were forced to raise to 23% VAT on gas and electricity, we have created a social tariff for the poorest.
How to boost growth given that domestic demand will remain very low?
It is true that the austerity has a recessive effect. The middle class will suffer significant sacrifices. That's the ticket out of the crisis, the price of a country that has spent too long. Domestic demand will have a negative contribution to the end of 2012. This will be offset by exports that are doing well. The adjustment must be done very quickly to ensure the financing of the economy. Privatization are important to increase the availability of cash to help recapitalize banks. This will improve competitiveness, greater openness and internationalization of our economy.The State abound 12 billion euros in guarantees for banks.
Competitiveness remains the weak point of Portugal?
Hence the urgent need to launch structural reforms, which should have been done in conjunction with the entry into the EU. The country in several sectors – textiles, information technology, biotechnology … the high performers.
No less than 7000 pages posted! This is the amount represented by the reports of its nineteen nuclear power plants (58 reactors in operation over the EPR under construction at Flamanville) EDF is currently on schedule to transmit to the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) . The "policeman" of the atom is committed, through the voice of its Director General Jean-Christophe Niel to publish in full on its website.
The delivery of copies by EDF and other operators of nuclear facilities is only the first step in the process of "revaluation additional security" required by François Fillon after the accident at the plant in Fukushima, and conducted in parallel with the European approach called "stress tests". Experts from the ASN and IRSN (Institute of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection) now have three months to publish their report.Extra work for which the ASN has even mobilized to reinforce the "three or four young retirees". Even before the peer review of these reports by experts from other nuclear countries in Europe, between January and April 2012, some foreign experts will participate in the analysis of the copy of EDF.
Alongside the work on paper, the ASN program completed in October of 38 inspections in power, focused on protection against earthquakes, floods, power loss, loss of cooling and crisis management.
During December, the ASN requested EDF as it deems necessary measures – as it has already been done to strengthen the concrete slab of the Central Fessenheim. From January to April, reports of national safety authorities will be considered by their European peers.In the nuclear environment and the hexagonal Quai d'Orsay, is expected to undergo strong pressure from Germany to close the central border Fessenheim, Cattenom and Chooz.
Canal + has crossed the Rubicon and wants to become a major player in free television in France. Thursday, the group led by Bertrand Meheut announced the takeover of Direct 8 Direct and Star, two DTT channels free of the Bolloré Group. Initially, Canal + buys 60% stake in the TV division of Bolloré Media and awards it operational control. In three years, he may redeem the remaining shares. The operation was buckled in 48 hours! "I know and appreciate for a long time the leaders of Vivendi, Jean-René Fourtou and Jean-Bernard Levy, and Bertrand Meheut, CEO of Canal +. I am very pleased to be associated with such a good team, "said Vincent Bollore, Bollore Group CEO.
Gone are the days when the giants were the audiovisual respect the Yalta on TV: TF1 and M6 to the largest piece of the free TV, Canal + in the world of pay-TV and its 11 million subscribers. In France, the two families have substantially the same size: just over 3 billion euros for free TV financed by advertising and about $ 4 billion to pay.
After struggling for years to ensure a near-monopoly on pay TV (up to buy its rival TPS), it will not take long to Bertrand Meheut to tumble into force on the television commercial. Now a subsidiary of Vivendi will have three frequencies of DTT: iTV, Direct 8 Direct and Star. Be as much as TF1 and M6 more than the group which, in addition to the namesake chain, has only W9.For Bertrand Meheut, this operation meets the logic of "creating strong audiovisual groups able to defend themselves both on the live broadcast on the non-linear over the Internet. This will increase the value of our programs will experience an exclusive first exhibition in pay and free TV in a second. And pay-TV business is our heart. "
465 million for Bolloré
If this sounds like a declaration of war groups TF1 and M6, the marginalized, at the same time, the few independent French media landscape, and BFMTV NRJ12. With the launch of DTT in 2005, the Higher Audiovisual Council wanted to bring new players in the PAF: Bolloré Group AB, NextRadioTV and NRJ Group. But since the first two have sold their frequencies. Claude Berda NT1 and TMC has given its ally TF1.Bolloré sells Direct 8 Direct and Star in Canal +. The two remaining independent are the big losers. For its part, Bolloré Media made a good deal. Since 2005 he has invested hundreds of millions of euros in Live 8 and 70 million euros for the acquisition of Direct Star. Five years later, it enhances its flagship TV to 465 million euros! The channel Direct 8, mini-general, would be about 350 to 400 million euros Faxless payday loans. Direct Star would be a hundred. "We have successfully completed the first phase by creating Direct 8 from scratch and placing it among the first of TNT. But for the second phase, which will see all the media groups to engage in significant competition on the content, we decided to partner with a large broadcasting group, "said Vincent Bolloré.The myth of an audiovisual largely open to competition turns into a clash between three private-TF1, M6 and Canal + – and a public group, France Televisions. With their financial firepower, the first three will fight a war without thank you for the acquisition of content.
Add to this a sharp competition for advertising. Canal + now has a board weighing 400 million. Bertrand Meheut is trying to calm things down by stating that "this partnership does not change the industrial landscape, since we are in the continuity of existing channels. We are small in this market for free TV. " He recalled that "TF1 and M6 are, conversely, present in the pay television."It is unclear whether this is enough to calm things down, because, at the same time, the president of Canal Plus says it does not want to "abandon its free channel Canal 20" under channel offset. In this case, Canal +, which exceeds the number of authorized frequencies (maximum seven), should sell two. "It will sell certain frequencies paying," he says. The chain may be referred planet, present on the DTT.
This comes on the eve of the presentation of the report of Michel Boyon, president of CSA, the future of DTT. It is now a fait accompli. The media landscape is recomposed without him. If Canal + bought Direct 8 Direct and Star, the future of DTT is widely drawn. The TF1 group is in a strong position to demand not only the transfer of its news channel LCI of DTT (where it is marginalized) to DTT.But Nonce Paolini, CEO of TF1, claim compensation as a string, which should be TV Breizh. For its part, the M6, if he will not be weakened, will support its claims. He also wants to transform its pay DTT channel Paris Première chain free. And he also wants compensatory chain among its two projects WikiTV M6 family.
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François Fillon on Monday took a trip to the nuclear power plant of Bugey in Ain – one of the oldest park of EDF, one of the reactors suffered its general review of thirty years – to reiterate the government's argument in favor of nuclear energy. Being understood, said the Prime Minister, that "safety is the top priority." The end of a busy year on the last record. Six months after the disaster of Fukushima, Japan, EDF must provide a copy within two weeks of testing the resistance of French power stations.
ASN will then evaluate, by December, the information on the resistance of plants to earthquakes and extreme flooding.Asked about the failure to take into account the risk of terrorism in these tests, François Fillon acknowledged that the current plants – unlike the EPR reactor being built in Flamanville – would not survive the fall of a "jumbo" in the case of an attack like September 11, 2001 but that there are "other means than concrete" to counter an air attack, referring to anti-aircraft missile batteries and fighter on permanent alert. The prime minister also responded to a question about the resistance of the Flamanville earthquakes, following the information published in Le Canard chains."No need to read Le Canard chains, he said, all information is on the website of the Nuclear Safety Authority" (ASN) has called, playing the role of "sting", a better resistance of building control fast payday loan.
Besson favor of "stress tests"
The Prime Minister also called for the establishment of international safety standards. A goal that will not be met "for years" according to Andre-Claude Lacoste, President of the ASN, because of the hostility of countries like China, India and the United States. Eric Besson, Minister of Industry, will defend to the IAEA in Vienna, September 19, the idea to conduct stress tests in all nuclear countries. Pending the possible orders of the nuclear policeman at the end of the year, EDF provides better security of its power at all times.Example, during the four months off during the revision of the number 5 reactor Bugey, pre-authorization for an extension of ten years, 25 million euros is being invested to enhance its resistance to earthquakes.
Security has its price. Henri Proglio, the chairman of EDF, has also invoked July 29 to assert that it would be "natural" that the price at which EDF has to sell part of its current competitors (price Arenh) increases until to 46 euros per megawatt hour, while the authorities have set at 42 euros on 1 January 2012.
Responding to the BBC on this, François Fillon said "common sense" the current level of Arenh but added that more security funding for renewable energy made inevitable the rise in electricity prices. In government, he added, to control it as much as possible.
GroupM was promised a destiny to Twitter and Foursquare. Like the latter, the start-up in New York was revealed at the conference Internet "South by Southwest," which was held in Texas in March. But barely a year after its creation, GroupM has already attracted the attention of the giants of the Internet and has just been bought by Skype for an estimated $ 80 million.
The operation allows the specialist to Internet telephony to build a niche in the amount of online communication: messages grouped. With services such as GroupM, users can create discussion groups on their mobile phone and communicate with others, forming "chatrooms" private SMS.In recent months, major Internet players have been enamored of such services, which range from communication, and coordination, like Facebook, which bought the Beluga service in March 2011, eight months after its creation. In addition, the social network launched mid-August, Facebook Messenger, a mobile instant messaging application.
For its part, Google has made this communication bundle a cornerstone of its community platform + Google launched in late June, with the "hangouts" spaces bundled instant messaging and video. Finally, as recently shown by the London riots, the BlackBerry is an actor to be reckoned with in this area, through its private courier BBM (BlackBerry Messenger). Now owns GroupM, Skype will better stand up to these types of communications fast cash without a hassle.
175 million monthly users of Skype
"Skype and GroupM have a common vision.GroupM's team has created a messaging experience incredibly attractive bundle that runs across the terminals and mobile platforms, making it a perfect complement in voice, video and text of the Skype family, "said Tony Bates, general manager of Skype, in a statement.
For Jared Hecht, co-founder Steve Martocci GroupM, "there is a natural affinity between Skype and GroupM.""Our goal is to continue to develop tools that allow people to easily communicate, share and keep in touch with their close relations and important," he said, arguing that integration with Skype would allow the start-up achieve its vision of "ten times faster."
The start-up is already looking forward to see the service offered to 175 million monthly users of Skype.
The acquisition of Skype by GroupM, which is the subject of discussion for several months, could also be beneficial to Microsoft. It announced the acquisition of Skype for $ 8.5 billion in May.While sentencing the operating system (OS) Windows Mobile Phone 7, the software giant could find with GroupM a valuable feature to include in its bid for smartphones.
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