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A rating agency on three, Standard & Poor's, has already withdrawn its prestigious Aaa to France. One of its competitors, Moody's, could soon follow, warned the Socialist candidate for president Francois Hollande. In the days following the presidential election.

Moody's placed under the supervision of the French debt rating earlier this year, he said in an interview with Journal du Dimanche. It "will make a decision on May 12, he argued. It will not be a consequence of the May 6 vote of the French. I warn, already, for our fellow citizens that there is no confusion (…) For now, I ask in any case to be assessed by the French and not by markets. "  

How the candidate can know the date on which the decision will fall on Moody's France? Rating agencies maintain absolute secrecy about the content of their deliberations and their timing, until the publication of their decision. To predict the date of May 12, the candidate is based on the deadline set by the agency between his warning to the country concerned and the actual announcement.

Moody's placed the rating a negative outlook on Feb. 14. It can give its verdict – probably too negative for AAA French – in May. However, it would have a year to decide. "She may wait to see what measures are being implemented by the future president, for example until fall, when the budget for 2013 will be presented," qualifies Norbert Gaillard, specialist rating agencies.  

Clearing the ground

Francois Hollande tried to clear the ground, should he be elected, and while his main opponent, Nicolas Sarkozy, waved the threat of an attack against France markets where Socialist victory. Today, has defended the PS candidate, turbulence affecting Spain and Italy but not France. "It is particularly irresponsible for the incumbent to use the threat of speculative movements to persuade voters to abandon the alternation," he pleaded.

The first week of the next president, whoever he is, ahead eventful. First Moody's should actually decide before May 15 the fate of Aaa it attributed to France so far. Then the Commission will publish its opinion on the stability program of France. This document, sent to Brussels last week, details how the government intends to restore the balance of public finances by 2016. Problem: it takes into account neither the promises of the outgoing president, nor those of his socialist opponent.

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This contrasts with forecasts of real estate agencies. While Century 21 provides a stable property prices this year, Standard & Poor's anticipates a price decline of 15% by 2013. The demonstration of the rating agency is rigorous: in France, when borrowing capacity decrease, property prices nosedive. Between September 2007 and March 2009, borrowing capacity have receded by 7%, with the key to lower prices by 10% between March 2008 and June 2009. "In the next eighteen months, we expect a drop in borrowing capacity of the same magnitude, we read in the S & P memorandum, published yesterday. And also in 2012 we anticipate a 20% reduction in the number of home loans. "

That's why the rating agency predicted a price decline of 15%. To support his argument, it gives some examples of the greatest requirement of banks' property loans. By July 2011, the average credit was increased to 211 months (17 years and a half) against 237 months (almost 20 years) in March. As the number of credits, he has already plunged 40% last February. Another indicator that calls for a decline in prices: the real purchasing power is likely to decline in France, according to Standard & Poor's, in the first half, inflation would reach 1.3%, while disposable income would increase only 1% and would not know of developments in the second half. As for interest rates, they could rise to 5% by the end of the year, against 4.7% on average in December. Plausible macroeconomic data that fail to address one element highlighted by estate agents, psychological aspects related to buying a home. The coming months will tell if reason prevailed over passion, if S & P has better sensors that real estate professionals

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A few weeks before the start of the tourist season in Greece, industry professionals are concerned about given the country's image abroad. The clashes that broke out between police and demonstrators, repeated strikes in public transport and the crisis affecting the economy, trade and health, greatly tarnish the reputation of "Mediterranean paradise" Greece had so far.

For Francoise Deschamps, Director of Travel Agency Profile in Athens, it is a bad trial because the country. "Violence is not the nature of the Hellenes. There are fewer demonstrations and strikes if they only last a few hours when it comes to archaeological sites. The Acropolis is always accessible to all, "protested she.  

Lower prices

While acknowledging that bookings were down this summer, Francoise Deschamps makes a point of honor to overcome stereotypes, "apart from the American Express (which is rarely accepted because traders are unwilling to pay 7% commission) you can pay everywhere with a credit card or a Visa. No need to bring cash into oneself. Distributors are always stocked, "she says.

The large luxury resort with beach, private pool and gourmet restaurant at the guesthouse, hoteliers were for the most part, forced to lower room rates and offer additional services to each reservation. "Our prices have dropped by at least 20%," says Adrian Vassilikos, director of Airotel, owns six hotels in the country. If the crisis is especially hoteliers, because of increased taxes and reduced bookings, Adrien Vassilikos remains confident: "Tourists know that Athens, like the rest of the country, is one of the most safest in the world. No risk of terrorism or crime. The crisis has not increased the number of pickpockets. To this we must add that in case of accident or illness, we have very capable hospitals, providing care free and urgency, "he said quick cash.

Of solidarity

Tourism is the second largest economic sector in the country, representing 17% of GDP, after shipping. In 2011, Greece has benefited more or less the effect of revolutions and Arab tourism, compared to the previous year, increased by 10%. This year, some professionals rely on the solidarity towards Greece, shot by the crisis. This movement is gaining ground worldwide and in all sectors. Twenty major Greek groups, as the airline Aegean or Coca-Cola Hellenic, even financed full-page newspaper ads French, German, Dutch, Belgian and British. Under the slogan "give a chance to Greece", these advertisers show a country in flux, despite its economic vicissitudes.

A bank of tourism in the study

To improve the competitiveness of the tourism sector, the Greek government uses the aid of the "task force". This working group of the European Commission, whose representatives are installed in the Greek capital, shook the tourism industry. "Being competitive yes, but then to build infrastructure for mass tourism, there is a margin," worries Francoise Deschamps, Director of Travel Agency Profile. "Greece is a country that fits the needs of every tourist. You can still find himself alone on a beach, eating in a tavern or family homestay accommodation is unique and should not destroy it for the sake of competitiveness, "she adds. Several projects are in preparation at the Ministry of Finance including the creation of a bank or tourist development projects of ancient sites, remote islands from Piraeus or agricultural areas.

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Youth is condemned to the worst? Some suggest that argue indignation as the value of life. Philippe Hayat, founder of 100,000 Entrepreneurs Association, believes him, that high school and college students can take their future. "Let us turn to young people differently, according to another dynamic, and they say: to indignation or resignation, prefer action, the real, which contradicts the fatality. Since life seems so difficult to track, anticipate it, take it in hand and only count on you, "he writes in the book" Tackle! With indignation, prefer action, "published by Editions de l'Archipel.

Far made ideas that serve as ready-to-think, the treaty of good manners at the new generations is rooted in life to show that anything is possible. Philippe Hayat tells the story of his grandfather, Leon. Born in Tunisia in the late nineteenth century, Leo must make a living from the age of 14 when his parents disappear. Raising only his little sister, as between the adolescent boy to do everything in a bank. He climbs the ladder and managed to pay his three son studying in Paris. He settled in later years in the capital tricolor. "The example of young Leo would have blown that fate is made to be contradicted," says the author.

Following in the footsteps of his grandfather and his father, Philippe Hayat chose to shape his life. He became an entrepreneur in the early 1990s and decided to share his passion for the business. He founded the association 100,000 Contractors' initiates action contractors volunteers in colleges, high schools and higher education payday loan lenders. " His ambition is just "a few years, one hundred thousand entrepreneurs can restore confidence to a whole generation." His conclusion is simple: "France is a country of entrepreneurs who should no longer ignore." The million responsible associations, the willingness of young people from difficult to get by, employees who invent new projects in the administration or large groups reflect the dynamism of the country.

But the willingness of teachers and business is not enough that attitudes are changing. "The electoral programs generally evoke entrepreneurship lip service – and then only when … social policies seem less eager to support entrepreneurs seeking growth," says Philippe Hayat, which advocates that " Political leaders of youth entrepreneurship a national cause. More optimistic than words of caution and rigor on the one hand, compassion and grant the other hand, such an approach would be an early response to many evils. " This would require that this wish is that the state abandons some of its powers and leaves the field open to individual energies.

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After a marathon day yesterday crisis between the euro area and global economic issues, the G20 continues this Friday at Cannes. Nicolas Sarkozy, master of ceremonies, will have his hands between preparations for the final communiqué and placed under international trusteeship of Italy payday loans no teletrack.

"Reliving the day Thursday

Household consumption, the traditional driver of French growth, declined in September. It fell 0.5% last month, according to figures from INSEE published on Friday, after rising 0.2% in August. Despite this poor performance, the third quarter remains positive consumption rose 0.2% after a particularly bleak picture of the second quarter this indicator fell by 1.9%.

In September, it is the purchase of textile-leather and energy costs which have lowered consumption. These expenditures have dropped respectively by 4.7% and 4% last month, a much greater decline than in previous months. For the textile sector, the wrong number "announcement of hard times," Judge Camille Williencourt, an economist at Natixis. It points out that consumption fell by 17% in this sector since the second quarter of 2007.The position of the energy suffers for his back spending for petroleum products. During the quarter, energy consumption is still rising sharply (+3.3%), after falling 2.1% in the second quarter.

Increase in car purchases

On a positive note, the consumption of durable goods, which partly reflects consumer confidence in the future, has rebounded. After falling 0.3% in August, it rose 1.9% last month. The quarter proved generally positive 0.4%, after falling 6.2% in the second quarter. A strong performance driven by car purchases (2.8% in September) and household equipment (1.3% in September from 2.7% in August). "During the quarter, automotive expenses are stable after a fall of 11% in the second quarter," notes INSEE.A sign that the industry "is recovering gradually, after a very poor second quarter impacted by the decision of the cash for clunkers," said Camille Williencourt.

INSEE had Tuesday reported an unexpected improvement of consumer confidence in October. Indeed, they are much less likely to anticipate a rise in unemployment – although the statistics published this week have reported a record high – and are optimistic that this summer on their future standard of living. Other anticipation apparently bodes well for the consumption of the end of the year, they were also more likely to feel the need to make major purchases. But despite these positive developments, "consumer sentiment remains generally depressed, said Helene Baudchon, economist at BNP Paribas, well below its long-term average of 100."

The publication of the sales of LVMH this morning, showing a 15% increase in sales in the first nine months of the year, shows that the luxury sector is beyond the gloom. It is now concentrated around a very small number of listed companies. To play the stock market, investors in Europe the choice of three values: LVMH and Hermes International in France and the Swiss Richemont, owner of brands including Cartier, Montblanc, Alfred Dunhill and Lancel.

In exchange, these groups are distinguished by the same characteristics. First of all, a very strong sales growth which is an essential element of appreciation to investors at a time when fears of a slowdown are increasingly strong in manufacturing and services.Markets expect according to the consensus published by Bloomberg in a 19.2% increase in sales of LMVH this year, against only 10.2% growth on average for the CAC 40 companies (excluding financials). Hermès expectations are even higher (25%). Richemont is penalized by the rise of the Swiss franc, but the market expects (excluding currency effects) to a 19% increase in sales, a level equivalent to that of the previous year.

Good resilience to the crisis

Most of the increase in sales due to the presence of these groups in emerging markets where growth remains strong. LVMH achieves almost 40% of its sales in Asia and the region at Hermès International represented 45.3% of sales in the first half to 590.9 million euros.Although the annual rate of China's growth fell from 9.5 to 9.1% in late September, the outlook for luxury business are very well oriented in these regions.

This exceptional situation leads to multiple capitalization rates of 16.5 and 16.8 times earnings expected for 2011 for LVMH and Richemont, which places them at levels much higher than the 8.6 expected for the CAC 40. Hermes is the subject of recurring rumors of a takeover bid, particularly on the part of LVMH, is paid for his part more than 48 times earnings estimates for the current year. In exchange, a high multiple is certainly synonymous with vulnerability, but in the minds of investors, it is clearly synonymous with exceptional value.

Result, in contrast to Richemont who suffer from the appreciation of the Swiss franc, most of these titles were very well in the market downturn.The course of LVMH declined only 9.4% since the beginning of the year and one of Hermes International prances among the highest growth of the year with a 50% increase since 1 January. While much of this increase was due to speculative buying, what are the prospects for growth and profitability that reassure investors.

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On the menu of the G20 Finance, the crisis of the euro area and the slowing world economy wiped out all other subjects dear to President Nicolas Sarkozy. Reform the international monetary system to reduce the large global imbalances. At the summit this Friday in Paris, the finance ministers of major economic powers should demand accountability from their counterparts in the euro area.

Statements prior to the summit leaves no room for doubt. The leaders of the G20 countries are working on a short-term plan to stop the economic downturn and reduce the impact of the crisis in the euro area, said a Canadian official on his way to Paris. The G20 will not replace the euro area in the resolution of the Greek crisis, however, he warned.

"The meetings focus on how to increase the resources available to deal with the crisis and stabilize the markets", said Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Zhu. The Europeans would like to see the great powers increase the resources of the IMF so that it can lend more to countries in the eurozone in trouble. "Of course they want, the Chinese Minister has responded. But we have just discussed. "Understand: nothing has been decided to date.

"The resources of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF, the support mechanism in the euro area) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be inadequate if the contagion (of the crisis in the euro area) continued" said Pravin Gordhan Finance Minister of South Africa on Friday.In this case, the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) "indicated that they would be likely to support international institutions if they were asked no fax payday advances."

No decisions

The G20 finance ministers this Friday should not result in decisions, the Canadian official has warned. Rather it is to prepare the final summit of the French Presidency of the G20, on 3-4 November in Cannes, which will bring together heads of states of representing 85% of the global economy. "Europeans should explore the support that this Friday is prepared to give them their Chinese counterparts, American and Japanese decrypts Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale CIB.Investors hope the G20 in November resulted in a plan likely to change that. "

Meanwhile, finance ministers French, Italian and German should have the barrage of questions from their peers about their response to the crisis. "The adverse consequences of delaying the solution are just bigger," expressed concern Thursday Lael Brainard, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary for International Affairs "Given the growing risks that threaten the recovery, the U.S. will intensified their call for determined action. "The Europeans are on notice: they must find a solution to the crisis at their next summit, Sunday, October 23.

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(Special Envoy to Florence)

The tax collectors, 1540, Marinus van Reymerswaele personal business card. (Florence, Museo Stibbert)