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Markets are restless away the pretenders to the Exchange

Friday Sep 30, 2011

Canal +, Verallia, Lucien Barrière, Groupama and may soon Groupon Facebook … Months pass, and delayed plans to introduce as … Since the beginning of the year, stock markets have surpassed the dismal 2008 record of the number of IPOs interrupted, postponed or simply canceled. According to Dealogic, as of 1 January, 215 companies all markets (one more than the previous record of 2008) and have temporarily waived or not to stock their projects. The valuation of these suspended projects is estimated at 44.1 billion dollars.

As many failures as successes

Finally, with 224 new listed companies, plans IPO in 2011 materialized just above groups who backed down … Reveals a situation very unfavorable market conditions for the candidates to the adventure market."A successful introduction requires both companies which want to move in the markets and investors willing to commit, explains Philippe Kubis, capital markets partner at PwC. If the materials are there, the latter remain far behind, in a context of uncertainty in the business plan of candidates for introduction. In addition, operations are often arrested in very early stage, which means more delays than cancellations of projects. "

On June 20, the materials group Saint-Gobain Building and renounced to introduce an immediate business of bottles and jars, Verallia. Two months later, the CEO of Wendel (Wendel largest shareholder) welcomed the decision, finding that ca "was not a good start to the stock market history."Alongside 59 other companies had suspended their plans after the official launch of the operation, Verallia escaped the summer meltdown of financial markets, which saw the CAC 40 lost 18% between late June and early September. "The very low current valuations are not conducive to achieving the project, adds Philippe Kubis. The adequacy of the valuation of a company with market conditions at a given time is a key to the success of an operation. However, companies do not want an introduction to the discount. "

Market volatility, however, is not solely responsible. In September 2010, the hotel group Accor has sought to withdraw from the group of Casinos Lucien Barriere, via an initial public offering, and market conditions much more calm.No more successful for this group suffered from poor stock market performance of its competitor Partouche, and especially of a development strategy too unconvincing to raise funds expected.

Tell a story

A successful introduction presupposes an attractive project for sale to investors (a "story to tell," according to experts). From this point of view, some candidates still have a stock speech ambiguity, or an economic model that have not been sufficiently proven.

Best example: the site group purchasing U.S. Groupon. The group was founded by Andrew Mason enthusiastic market for two years by the brilliance of its growth. What to think about a possible introduction free credit score. But the news could cool investors.The site, which is a valuation of $ 20 billion, would be delayed by several months its plans stock, following the refusal by the federal authorities of certain elements of his record. The group took many liberties with the accounting to embellish his figures, making it the most beautiful bride. The kind of hocus-pocus that would certainly not digested the market if the group had been rated! Especially since Groupon continues to widen its losses under the weight of investment in advertising and marketing commitment to support its growth.

In terms of social networks, some uncertainty still exists about how to value companies. "The valuations given for these sites seem important in light of an economic model that looks a little, says Philippe Kubis.It seems to move towards a model including user fees, which ultimately enhance the strength of their profile, and investor interest. "

Constraints rating

A case which also the developer of video games on social networks Zynga. Again, the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) had requested more information on the group's activities. What backward one month (November) the first steps in Zynga Stock Exchange. Even Facebook, social networking superstar, endless hesitation. Its founder Marck Zuckerberg, fear of such an operation a shift in focus of its product development teams to financial performance. From this point of view, the market performance of its professional counterpart, LinkedIn tends to reinforce his caution.Despite a triumphant introduction to the New York Stock Exchange last May, the group rating today in its opening price.

For SMEs, the fund raising smaller first appear easier. Following the example of specialist endomicroscopy Mauna Kea, which easily lifted in early July about 50 million euros on the Paris. Innovative technology, and markets more stable: the stage was set to attract investors. But since then, the small company founded in 2000 has not escaped the stock market panic. After being flown by 43% during the first two trading days (a common occurrence during IPOs), the title of the listed company has 13% below its price of admission.

Mauna Kea in its IPO price

For SMEs, the fund raising smaller first appear easier.Following the example of specialist endomicroscopy Mauna Kea, which easily lifted in early July about 50 million euros on the Paris. Innovative technology, and markets more stable: the stage was set to attract investors. But since then, the small company founded in 2000 has not escaped the stock market panic. After being flown by 43% during the first two trading days (a common occurrence during IPOs), the title of the listed company has 13% below its price of admission.

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Asian stock markets stay in green

Wednesday Sep 28, 2011

The optimism was tinged with a slight caution. After Tuesday's rebound, which saw the Nikkei finished up sharply from 2.82%, Asian stock markets continued their upward trend, but less strongly than the day before. After opening up 0.15%, the index shows Tokyo, less than an hour from the close, up 0.29% to 8635.23 points. The Korean KOSPI ahead of his side of 0.47% and the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange of 0.18%. Only the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, which opened down 1.42%, remains in the red, down 0.90% to 17,967.30 points. Wednesday, he had won more than 4%.

As on Wall Street where the Dow Jones ended up on 1.33% and Europe, where the CAC surged 5.74%, Asian investors have earned by renewed optimism on the resolution of the crisis debt in the eurozone.According to various sources, Europeans should indeed decide to stabilize Greece and the banking sector business cards. Strengthening the emergency fund indebted countries (EFSF) was particularly mentioned.

The yen also paused in its upward trend against the dollar, which has benefited some export values, especially in electronics and automotive. The dollar is changing around 76.54 yen while the euro is worth about 103.81 yen. As for the oil markets, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery lost 1.25 dollars to 83.20 dollars in early electronic trading. A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gave 96 cents to 106.18 dollars.The previous day, oil had spread over 4 dollars in New York.

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TF1 is delighted audiences rugby

Tuesday Sep 27, 2011

The defeat of the France rugby team against New Zealand does not have a bitter taste for everyone. TF1, the broadcaster of the game, was pleased to display a record audience for a rugby match since 2007. Saturday morning, 7.8 million people watched the match on average, 65% audience share on the 4 and older. "The hearings are excellent. It should be noted that with 50% audience share on Women, the games attract beyond the traditional circle of sports fans, "said François Pellissier, athletic director at TF1. The crowd is even rise to 9 million viewers late in the game in hopes of a last burst of the Blues face the All Blacks.

Since the beginning of the competition, the team of France is mobilizing the masses. The first match between France and Japan gathered 5 million viewers and a week later France-Canada has attracted 7.6 million.Scores of rivers, these early morning hours on weekends, spray the audience share. Usually on Saturday morning, TF1 is a teleshopping program that fascinates 200,000 addicts. Even the traditional "Auto Moto" and "Téléfoot" on Sunday morning, only drain an average of 1.2 million and 1.8 million fans.

If matches are followed, the magazine presented by Denis Brogniart is also a ratings success. Before France and Japan, "World Cup, the Mag" was attended by 2.6 million people, after France and Canada, it reached 3 million. Small disappointment, "Mag" aired last Saturday of 10:00 to 10:30 has made a 1 pay day loans.7 million audience. Even fans give themselves a fat oval ball on Saturday morning!

Spot € 100,000

With France virtually guaranteed to play the quarterfinals, TF1 can breathe.The chain should at least remove some ten million euros in net advertising revenue (not including sponsorship) of this adventure even if France stops at the quarter-final stage. If the Blues are in the semifinals, the addition will reach 11 million and if they reach the final, TF1 should earn 12 million euros net, according to forecasts by Philippe Nouchi, director of media expertise for agencies Starcom and ZenithOptimedia. With France in the quarterfinals, the 30-second spot is expected to sell 84,000 euros, 90,000 euros semifinals and finals 100,000 euros. Without France, it will settle for 37,000 euros a spot in the semifinals and 43,000 euros in the final spot.

For TF1, the economic equation should not be too unfavorable. The group had bought the two editions (2007 and 2011) to 80 million euros.For competition in New Zealand, TF1 decided to sell some games to France Television and Canal + to 13 million euros. If the chain reaps a dozen million of advertising and it boosts average audience of September and October, the operation will be advantageous.

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Unedic: 123,100 more unemployed

Sunday Sep 25, 2011

The Unedic Thursday sharply revised its financial projections and employment for 2011 and 2012 following the economic downturn. And the results are anything but good. While the unemployment insurance system in late May included a slight increase in unemployment this year (12,000), it is now estimated that 144,100 more job seekers through the doors of employment center in 2011.

A variation in the end, more than 130,000 people! Worse, for next year, the decline was announced before the 91,000 unemployed in 2012 should eventually turn up … 123,100. Or, this time, a delta of close to 215,000 job seekers.

Job creation in 2012 will also suffer from the slowdown by 2013.According to projections by Unedic, they will simply be divided by 2.5, to stabilize below 70 000 in late 2012.

13 billion euros of accumulated deficit late 2012

The effect on the finances of the unemployment insurance system is important easy to get unsecured personal loans. The deficit for 2011 is expected to increase to 500 million euros, 2.5 billion tangent again. And over 272 million anticipated four months ago for 2012 will turn into hole of nearly $ 1.8 billion. Result, the deficit which was initially just exceed 10 billion by 2012, also off again on the rise and be around at the end of next year, the $ 13 billion.

"These poor results do not Unedic in a dire financial situation, however, reassured the president, Gaby Bonnand. We have the means to meet our commitments and pay allowances.We just need to remain vigilant because it will be difficult to borrow in the markets, given the situation worse. "

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Baroin wants to reassure Americans about Europe

Saturday Sep 24, 2011

Baroin on a plateau of CNN, this is not Christine Lagarde interviewed in the "Daily Show" Jon Stewart. Former Economy Minister had marked the spirits with a beautiful demonstration of self-mockery, in a financial crisis, saying with a humor all English-speaking French position vis-à-vis the situation of banks. An effective way to get messages across the Atlantic, in a country that does not always share – far from it! – The same opinion as the Europeans.

His successor, however, has adopted this week at the annual meeting of the World Bank and IMF, a slightly different stature. Gravely, sheets strung, serious rigor.Interviewed Thursday by Maggie Lake in its program "Business 360", the French minister wanted to embody the application with which Europe treats the moment the debt crisis.

Translator to support – "it is just not to be mistaken on any word and bring down the stock market more than 5%!" Calls due to his entourage who wants to remove the rumor saying the angry with the Shakespeare's language – Baroin refuses to be intimidated by any questions. Not even when the presenter asked about "fear" about the situation of banks in Europe.That one, he was waiting for … "They have good corners," said the minister, the coup, speaks with a touch of nostalgia the three years he was an economic journalist on Europe 1.

"No way to leapfrog"

The next morning, it's the American columnists (those in the Washington Post, Financial Times, The New York Times or the Wall Street Journal and The Economist) that seeks to convince the "pragmatism" of the strategy adopted by Europe on July 21 to stem the debt crisis.Despite the G20 communiqué issued last night, the Minister did not want to see a winning mine – it must be said at the same time the new stock exchanges were pretty bad … – ensuring that there were still efforts to be done to reduce deficits and restore growth.

Main concern of American editorial writers: what is the market reaction if the European countries openly admitted a lack of Greece? "No way to leapfrog," once again hammered Baroin.As for the situation of the banks of the Old Continent, which also concerned the American press, it should be raised at the traditional "bankers' dinner," which brought together tonight finance ministers and heads of the major French financial institutions as part of an annual meeting …

After his three-day visit to Washington, the message of France is over. The cameras turn off, the books disappear, and finally relaxes Baroin joking with reporters … in English!


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Fed fails to reassure Wall Street

Thursday Sep 22, 2011

The U.S. stock markets accentuate their losses on Wednesday. Shortly after the announcements of the Fed, the Dow drops 1.26% to 11,265 points, the Nasdaq 0.44% to loose 2579 points and the S & P was down 1.50% to 1184 points.

In accordance with the expectations of investors, the central bank of the United States announced new measures to support the U.S. economy. It will sell by the end of June 2012 for $ 400 billion of treasury bills and short-term buy for the same amount with a longer maturity in an attempt to lower interest rates in the long term ( it "Operation Twist"). To support the mortgage market, it will also buy real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio, according to the Committee.

But markets that find especially its verdict on the economy is not good.The recovery is considered "slow", hence maintaining the rate to almost zero "until mid 2013."

These remarks are similar to those Dufond International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised the specter of a global recession and launched at policy makers in the world "a fervent call to action". At the same time the institution has significantly downgraded its growth forecasts for the global economy. This is expected to grow 4% in 2011 as in 2012, 0.5 points below its previous forecast of 4.5% last April.

Markets always attentive to the crisis in the eurozone

Investors also remain attentive to developments in the crisis of public finances in Europe.Greece announced on the evening of its intention to launch new austerity measures to convince the Troika of its creditors and obtain payment of a new tranche of aid in October that will allow it to avoid bankruptcy.

Wednesday Rousseff, the president of Brazil, Barack Obama has assured his support for the euro area, together with other emerging countries, as it had already mentioned a week ago.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro lost some ground against the dollar after the Fed. The euro bought 1.3616 dollars late in the session on Wall Street against 1.3702 dollars late Tuesday. The price of a barrel of oil closed lower. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended down a dollar to 85.92 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).He had opened down 14 cents, and had rebounded upward after stock figures showing a sharp decline in U.S. reserves.

On the macroeconomic front, sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose 7.7% from July, seasonally adjusted data, the NAR said that sales figures are higher than the median estimate of analysts payday loans.

Microsoft treats its shareholders

The side of values, Moody's said Wednesday it lowered the credit ratings of Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on the ground that the Federal government may be reluctant to rush to the aid of large banking institutions in difficulty.

The oil company ExxonMobil (+0.11% A74, 09 dollars) will sell of deposits in the North Sea to fellow Apache through $ 1.75 billion in cash, announced Wednesday it.

Microsoft (-0.85% to 26.75 dollars) announced Tuesday evening after the close of Wall Street that it would increase the quarterly dividend 25% used to its shareholders. The dividend paid on December 8 will be increased to $ 0.20 per share, or $ 0.04 higher than the previous one. Also in order to treat his shareholders Microsoft also recalled that he had launched in September 2008 a program to repurchase its own shares for 40 billion dollars. Of this amount, the group can still make $ 12.2 billion of purchases before the scheduled end of the program in September 2013.

Also after the close, Adobe Systems (3.25% to 25.44 dollars) announced better than expected forecasts for the fourth quarter. The group expects adjusted earnings between 57 and 64 cents per share in the fourth quarter, against 58 cents expected by the consensus of analysts.The leading design software issued a profit of $ 195.1 million, or 39 cents Park share in the third quarter against 230.1 million dollars, or 44 cents a share, a year earlier. Turnover increased by 2% to $ 1.01 billion.

Still in the world of technology stocks, Oracle (6.88% to 30.30 dollars) has issued a net profit up 36% to $ 1.84 billion, just above expectations.The turnover to 8.37 billion, also slightly above what had been expected analysts (8360000000).

American Electric Power (-0.30% to 38.20 dollars) and its joint venture with MidAmerican Energy has been approved by the Texas authorities for electrical infrastructure projects for a total estimated at more than $ 520 million.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (0.35% to 1.60 dollars) and Japan's Ono Pharmaceutical has signed a development and commercialization of Orencia, a biological treatment against rheumatoid arthritis.

FMC Technologies (0.56% to 43.37 dollars) has won a contract worth $ 135 million from BG Norge in the manufacture of subsea equipment.

Medtronic (0.37% to 34.95 dollars) will receive 101 million in damages after the trial against the company by NuVasive.


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The subprime crisis to the Renaissance

Tuesday Sep 20, 2011

(Special Envoy to Florence)

The tax collectors, 1540, Marinus van Reymerswaele personal business card. (Florence, Museo Stibbert)


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Passos Coelho: "If Greece dark, the entire EU to be at risk"

Monday Sep 19, 2011

LE FIGARO – You met President Nicolas Sarkozy Friday. What is your analysis of the crisis in the euro area?

Pedro Passos Coelho – Our views are converging. We must accelerate the process of ratifying the plan in July that the EU speaks with one voice. It is essential to avoid systemic risk. How to convince the markets where European leaders expressed doubts on the future of Europe! It must be absolutely avoided, it is better to be silent than to sow doubt.

Would it be better to organize the failure of Greece?

I refuse to make predictions, I'd rather be patient and hope that Athens takes its objectives and carry out sustainable reforms. If Greece dark, the entire EU to be at risk.We need to help Greece and at the same time strengthen the EU, to establish a more integrated economic government which deals with taxation.

What are the consequences in Portugal of the deepening crisis in Greece?

Portugal is in a vulnerable position vis-à-vis Greece. If the crisis worsens, it will make our recovery process more difficult. My vision is very pragmatic: we must make every effort to carry out reforms and fiscal consolidation.

Economists doubt your ability to meet commitments on fiscal 2011?

The aid package was negotiated before the elections. Since then we have taken additional steps preventive and our calendar of spending cuts is more ambitious. We have the political support for it.We will keep the target of 5.9% of GDP deficit in 2011 and are targeting a primary surplus (excluding debt service) in 2012 for a balanced budget in 2015 and an external account deficit by half a point against 9% last year. In addition to the expenditure side and the privatization plan, we will conduct several structural reforms, justice, labor market, too rigid regulation. We will create a board of public finances, which will be independent to ensure full transparency in the management of the state.

Where are you from privatization?

We are to remove the golden shares held by the state in public enterprises, then we will begin the process of privatization in the energy sector by mid-November, by selling the companies for electricity, gas and oil, which Galp.We will then proceed to the privatization of the airline TAP, the airport manager Ana, mail, freight rail and radio station public television RTP. The whole process should be finalized in late 2012, the objective to recover at least 7 billion euros.

Have you received expressions of investors?

Yes, many, from the European economies but also emerging countries, Brazil, China and several Arab countries bad credit unsecured personal loans.The president of the National Bank of Economic Development in Brazil (BNDSE), the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, Lula and his predecessor have already come to us with investor interest in Brazil.

This interest is there also for the government debt?

The purchase of public debt is subject to specific rules, but the important thing is that there were demonstrations of confidence in this government about the quality of Portuguese debt.

Will you create a wealth tax, such as Spain prepares to do?

We refused this solution, not to discourage large fortunes to come and settle in Portugal. However, we have created a special tax of solidarity that will help tackle the portion of 2.5% marginal tax on income that will affect higher wages and will last two years.We also created an additional tax of 3% on business profits in excess of 1.5 million euros, also for two years. The purpose of these taxes is not to create an additional revenue but to allow us to finance social assistance measures for families hit hardest by the crisis.

What are these measures?

They are primarily related to housing. Households that can no longer repay their debts to buy their apartments can contact their bank for the loan to be converted into low-rent, which will relieve the financially while allowing them to remain at home. Similarly, those earning up to one and a half times the minimum wage benefit from using public transport.In addition, if we were forced to raise to 23% VAT on gas and electricity, we have created a social tariff for the poorest.

How to boost growth given that domestic demand will remain very low?

It is true that the austerity has a recessive effect. The middle class will suffer significant sacrifices. That's the ticket out of the crisis, the price of a country that has spent too long. Domestic demand will have a negative contribution to the end of 2012. This will be offset by exports that are doing well. The adjustment must be done very quickly to ensure the financing of the economy. Privatization are important to increase the availability of cash to help recapitalize banks. This will improve competitiveness, greater openness and internationalization of our economy.The State abound 12 billion euros in guarantees for banks.

Competitiveness remains the weak point of Portugal?

Hence the urgent need to launch structural reforms, which should have been done in conjunction with the entry into the EU. The country in several sectors – textiles, information technology, biotechnology … the high performers.


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Air France-KLM Orders 110 Airbus and Boeing aircraft

Saturday Sep 17, 2011

The airline announced Friday morning the details of his mega-order long-awaited by the industry. Air France-KLM is in need of long-haul 110 and passes a total of 50 firm orders and 60 options from Airbus and Boeing. Choices that are equally balanced between the two aircraft manufacturers as the firm order for 25 Airbus A350-900 and 25 Boeing B787-9 and the options are based on 35 A350-900s and 25 B787. The slight advantage, theoretical, obtained by Airbus was offset by the secret location by KLM B787 10, said La Tribune.

The group did not indicate the amount of the order but at list price, the total value would represent an investment of $ 20 billion and approximately 11.3 billion in firm orders.Following its board of directors held Thursday in New York, the group said the acquisitions "are designed to be funded by cash flow generated by the group's operations."

In addition, the group plans to commission 73 new aircraft by 2024 and then the options are exercisable between 2026 and 2028. The first Boeing 787-9 will enter service with KLM in 2016 while the first Airbus A350-900 will integrate the Air France fleet in 2018. The airline declined to give guidance on the distribution of new orders between the two group companies. "The two companies operate the two types of devices," Air France said simply. Sign that the group is more integrated than before and that the merger between Air France-KLM starts synergies.

Outstanding issues

Points of legal and economic order are still being defined.The discussion include the drivers and maintenance. In fact, the A350-900 ordered will be powered by Rolls-Royce or any device so far the airline did not work with such engines. The most important maintenance service of Air France-KLM has to adapt to new circumstances, notably through new licensing agreements.

And even if Air France-KLM touts its choices "after a detailed assessment" including on energy and environmental performance of appliances, the critics could rocket. One hundred French deputies had indeed launched a petition in June to urge Air France-KLM, which the state owns 15.7%, to choose the Airbus A350 instead of the Boeing 787 for its next command.

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Slight decline for Wall Street

Friday Sep 16, 2011

After still closed down Thursday night, the U.S. stock markets could take a break this Friday. Shortly before the opening of Wall Street index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, yielded 0.38% at 1199.60 points, 0.31% to 2277 points. The Dow Jones was meanwhile expected on an initial decline of 0.32% at 11,339 points.

The previous day, U.S. markets had progressed further in spite of macroeconomic indicators, however misguided, both on the employment front, and that of manufacturing.

But investors have ignored, preferring to focus on reassuring news from Europe, as the announcement of a new agreement between central banks to provide dollar liquidity to European banks and Japanese. "This program already exists, say the analysts at Aurel BGC.The ECB offered this week, two European banks to dollar liquidity in 7 days "

Suddenly, the "four witches" today is to say the expiration of four types of futures contracts on indices and stocks, "will be addressed, according to Aurel BGC in a more serene. Recent events have reassured investors and market expectations about European officials said after the meeting of the Ecofin support actions ".

U.S. consumer debt and European

At the macroeconomic agenda of the day, the index of consumer sentiment for the month of September is expected this afternoon, 12:00 to 3:55 p.m..But such macroeconomic indicators may well be once again overshadowed by political events related to the debt crisis and European banks.

Indeed, this Friday as European finance ministers and the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, this exceptional, try to resolve their differences at a meeting of high voltage in Poland. This is to complete a second plan of aid to Greece, imperative to save the country and the euro area, whose failing health is in turmoil the entire planet.Timothy Geithner has already openly believed that Europeans should inject more funds to avoid a major crisis.

On the corporate side, the rating agency Moody's said Thursday it placed under surveillance notes of the bank UBS (-10% yesterday at the close of Wall Street) with for a potential degradation due to " weaknesses in risk management group. "

At the heart of the news, Google has purchased 1023 additional patents in the computer company IBM to consolidate its portfolio and to attempt to dissuade trial for violation of intellectual property.Google expects the other hand that the number of Internet users in India to be tripled in three years through improved access to wireless internet and at prices more affordable smartphone, reported on Friday Wall Street Journal.

Boeing could finally respond to the order by Air France-KLM of 110 long-haul aircraft, including 50 firm orders, builders Boeing and European Airbus to ensure fleet renewal.


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