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The publication of the sales of LVMH this morning, showing a 15% increase in sales in the first nine months of the year, shows that the luxury sector is beyond the gloom. It is now concentrated around a very small number of listed companies. To play the stock market, investors in Europe the choice of three values: LVMH and Hermes International in France and the Swiss Richemont, owner of brands including Cartier, Montblanc, Alfred Dunhill and Lancel.

In exchange, these groups are distinguished by the same characteristics. First of all, a very strong sales growth which is an essential element of appreciation to investors at a time when fears of a slowdown are increasingly strong in manufacturing and services.Markets expect according to the consensus published by Bloomberg in a 19.2% increase in sales of LMVH this year, against only 10.2% growth on average for the CAC 40 companies (excluding financials). Hermès expectations are even higher (25%). Richemont is penalized by the rise of the Swiss franc, but the market expects (excluding currency effects) to a 19% increase in sales, a level equivalent to that of the previous year.

Good resilience to the crisis

Most of the increase in sales due to the presence of these groups in emerging markets where growth remains strong. LVMH achieves almost 40% of its sales in Asia and the region at Hermès International represented 45.3% of sales in the first half to 590.9 million euros.Although the annual rate of China's growth fell from 9.5 to 9.1% in late September, the outlook for luxury business are very well oriented in these regions.

This exceptional situation leads to multiple capitalization rates of 16.5 and 16.8 times earnings expected for 2011 for LVMH and Richemont, which places them at levels much higher than the 8.6 expected for the CAC 40. Hermes is the subject of recurring rumors of a takeover bid, particularly on the part of LVMH, is paid for his part more than 48 times earnings estimates for the current year. In exchange, a high multiple is certainly synonymous with vulnerability, but in the minds of investors, it is clearly synonymous with exceptional value.

Result, in contrast to Richemont who suffer from the appreciation of the Swiss franc, most of these titles were very well in the market downturn.The course of LVMH declined only 9.4% since the beginning of the year and one of Hermes International prances among the highest growth of the year with a 50% increase since 1 January. While much of this increase was due to speculative buying, what are the prospects for growth and profitability that reassure investors.

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On the menu of the G20 Finance, the crisis of the euro area and the slowing world economy wiped out all other subjects dear to President Nicolas Sarkozy. Reform the international monetary system to reduce the large global imbalances. At the summit this Friday in Paris, the finance ministers of major economic powers should demand accountability from their counterparts in the euro area.

Statements prior to the summit leaves no room for doubt. The leaders of the G20 countries are working on a short-term plan to stop the economic downturn and reduce the impact of the crisis in the euro area, said a Canadian official on his way to Paris. The G20 will not replace the euro area in the resolution of the Greek crisis, however, he warned.

"The meetings focus on how to increase the resources available to deal with the crisis and stabilize the markets", said Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Zhu. The Europeans would like to see the great powers increase the resources of the IMF so that it can lend more to countries in the eurozone in trouble. "Of course they want, the Chinese Minister has responded. But we have just discussed. "Understand: nothing has been decided to date.

"The resources of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF, the support mechanism in the euro area) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be inadequate if the contagion (of the crisis in the euro area) continued" said Pravin Gordhan Finance Minister of South Africa on Friday.In this case, the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) "indicated that they would be likely to support international institutions if they were asked no fax payday advances."

No decisions

The G20 finance ministers this Friday should not result in decisions, the Canadian official has warned. Rather it is to prepare the final summit of the French Presidency of the G20, on 3-4 November in Cannes, which will bring together heads of states of representing 85% of the global economy. "Europeans should explore the support that this Friday is prepared to give them their Chinese counterparts, American and Japanese decrypts Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale CIB.Investors hope the G20 in November resulted in a plan likely to change that. "

Meanwhile, finance ministers French, Italian and German should have the barrage of questions from their peers about their response to the crisis. "The adverse consequences of delaying the solution are just bigger," expressed concern Thursday Lael Brainard, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary for International Affairs "Given the growing risks that threaten the recovery, the U.S. will intensified their call for determined action. "The Europeans are on notice: they must find a solution to the crisis at their next summit, Sunday, October 23.

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After three days of failure and silence, it is time for excuses at RIM, the maker of BlackBerry smartphones. Mike Lazaridis, the founder of the group, announced yesterday mid-afternoon recovery of e-mails and the Internet and especially apologized in a video.

It is not clear that this is sufficient to restore the trust of those customers who have been touted for years the irreproachable quality of service of BlackBerry. The damage is considerable.For nearly four days, the vast majority of the 70 million BlackBerry circulating in the world have been very long breaks in services.

This failure is striking for its breadth and comes at the worst time, when the company was criticized by shareholders and that its rival Apple released the iPhone 4S.

"We can compare this failure which occurred earlier this year Sony with piracy data bank. The service was not affected, but it aroused the same loss of customer confidence. In both cases, the credibility in terms of brand image is reached ", e xplique Jean-Michel Huet, managing partner of the firm Bearing Point. To cope, it is necessary not only that RIM do his mea culpa, possibly to indemnify customers and above all it gives the guarantee that this will not happen again. "There are three or four years, the Bouygues Telecom network had broken down.They had compensated the customers by offering a day pass, "he recounts.

For now, RIM could face significant financial claims. Vodafone, Telefonica (Spain), Emirates Telecommunications plan to compensate their subscribers and then to turn against BlackBerry. Operators might be less generous in their grants to buy a BlackBerry, frustrated by having to manage "a deluge of calls on line pay day loans."

Captive customers

However, RIM has the advantage that some of its customers are captive: companies will not change their entire fleet of mobile overnight, and individuals are often under commitment and can not change your mobile. The Canadian manufacturer has a little time to regain the trust of its customers. But not all."There are already companies that are considering leaving RIM and wonder about its reliability," says Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Gartner.

This failure could also hinder the development of RIM in emerging markets. The group is just beginning to establish itself in India, one of the countries most affected by the bug! To compensate for the decline in sales in the United States and Canada, the manufacturer decided to focus on these countries.

In addition, the group's management is facing a serious crisis of confidence that will get better because of the difficulties of society. Last quarter, sales fell 19% to 10 million smartphones, while its net income was divided by more than two, to 329 million, for a turnover down 10% in one year at $ 4.2 billion.Some shareholders, including investment funds, require a change of direction or a sale of the group. The problems this week, compounded by the lack of communication of the group at the beginning of the week, fueling discontent. Yesterday, the title yielded 3.43% at the opening of Wall Street, a decline of over 60% year on year.

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The major index futures on Wall Street, announce an opening slightly lower on the NYSE. After four sessions of strong gains in a row investors should reap a share of their earnings per caution. Attention should be reinforced by several major deadline ahead.

Vote at high risk in Slovakia

Investors in the U.S. and Europe will continue to follow step by step développementsde the debt crisis in the eurozone. The latter is suspended by a vote very uncertain of the Slovak Parliament on Tuesday that could block the strengthening of the Financial Assistance Fund of the monetary union, the main instrument to hope to stop the contagion of the debt crisis, banks in particular.Investors also await the release later in the day of the minutes of the Fed and the announcement of Alcoa, the first tenor of the coast to announce its figures for the third quarter. The euro area, which has so far failed to stem the debt crisis, has the "political will" to overcome, reiterated on Tuesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a visit to Vietnam. Jean Claude Trichet, the outgoing president of the ECB, for his part said that "clear decisions" were necessary in view of the seriousness of the situation. He said the crisis has reached a "systemic dimension."

Berlin and Paris reassure markets

The willingness of the Franco-German recapitalize the banks and out of the spiral of debt crisis, like in Europe, supported investor sentiment for several days.Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama gave his full support "to the strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel." The latter, meeting in Berlin on Sunday pledged to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit in Cannes, 3 and 4 November. About the difficulties of the European banking sector, the two leaders said they were "determined to do whatever it takes to ensure the recapitalization of our banks." Again, the "details" will be specified later, they promised, while the EU summit scheduled for October 17 and 18 was postponed to October 23 to allow more time for officers to prepare a response "global" . Investors will pay particular attention to responses to the Greek question, the epicenter of the crisis.The leading European finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said yesterday that a discount of over 60% for creditors of Greece was possible.

First dance of Quarterly Results

In the U.S., the season of quarterly results of large companies to begin on Tuesday after the close of Wall Street. As usual, the aluminum giant Alcoa will kick-off for these publications. Follow in particular, PepsiCo Wednesday, Thursday, JPMorgan Chase and internet group Google and finally, Friday, Mattel. Analysts bet on an average increase of 13% earnings per share for the third quarter.

On the macroeconomic front U.S. investors await including the minutes of the last Fed meeting on Tuesday in 20 hours.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro is trying to go against the greenback.By late morning, the euro bought 1.3602 dollars against 1.3645 dollars late Monday. Oil is, him stable. The barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery gained 18 cents to 85.59 dollars. A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gave a small 14 cents to 108.81 dollars.

Great success for the iPhone 4S

The side of values, Goldman Sachs should probably record a loss in the third quarter, which would be only the second quarterly loss in history of the giant Wall Street analysts expect Citigroup.

Apple announced its iPhone 4S has received one million pre-orders in the space of a day.By comparison, 600,000 pre-orders were recorded for the iPhone 4 in the first 24 hours.

Research in Motion announced Tuesday that its BlackBerry email and instant messaging were restored in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, nearly 20 hours after the crash reported in India and the region.

American Airlines announced a reduction in flights in coming months compared to the previous year, citing among other adverse economic conditions. American Airlines said its capacity during "the late fall and winter" would be reduced by 3% over the previous year.

The title of the group that Alcoa is required to publish its quarterly results after the market will be particularly surrounded.

Euro countries, including France and Germany, rejected the Euro Summit in Brussels originally scheduled for October 18 to October 23. This is to give a little more time to the development of the answer "global" announced this weekend in Berlin by Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel. "This new date will allow us to finalize a comprehensive strategy for the debt crisis in the euro area," said Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Union.

'Global response'

In Berlin, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel had foreshadowed the shift by promising "sustainable solutions, comprehensive and fast before the end of the month."They also kept to define the contours, which allows to believe that the agreement is to be locked at seventeen if not two, on the key points: the recapitalization of banks and the role of the European stabilization financial, finding economically viable treatment for Greece and modification of European treaties in order to strengthen collective discipline pay day loan lenders.

Europeans to revise their copy, just three months after concocted, July 21, a plan intended to resolve the crisis in Greece and curb its spread to Italy or Spain. It has not yet been adopted by all Seventeen. The vote of Slovakia, with a coalition divided on the subject may become paralyzing veto and the euro area.

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Fitch Ratings lowered the rating two notches from Spain, which now stands at "AA-". Spain held so far a "AA +", the fourth highest on a scale of twenty. More worryingly, the note is accompanied by a 'Negative' outlook, which means that the agency could lower it back to medium term.

Spanish growth at half mast

Moody's in turn should decide by the end of October on a possible downgrade Spanish now "Aa2" (the third best possible)."With significant funding needs" of the Spanish State, to cover its budget expenditures and net external debt is "one of the highest in the world" (91% of GDP), said Fitch, "the more volatile strong a negative effect on financing conditions in the market of Spain. "

But there are also internal factors in the country "risks to fiscal consolidation as a result of performance parts." The same agency Fitch has lowered Wednesday including the long-term rating of the Basque Country, one of the richest region in which it criticizes the "weak fiscal performance." Growth forecasts have been revised downwards. Wednesday, the Bank of Spain announced that the country's growth expected to slow in the third quarter, to reach an economic activity 'lackluster'.The Spanish government has also recognized that the economic growth targets it had set for 2011 and subsequent years would be "hard to reach" because of the risk of recession in the world.

Italian governance into question

Fitch also lowered the rating one notch to Italy, "A +" against "AA-" and does not see her again in the fall if the country would miss its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Fitch was the last of three major international rating agencies have not downgraded from Italy since the beginning of the debt crisis in the eurozone. She explained that the high level of public debt and budgetary financing needs, combined with the low level of potential growth (the country), made in Italy especially vulnerable.The Agency is challenging the country's governance and stressed that the differences in the Parliament and the escapades of the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, help to weaken the ruling coalition.

Belgium heckled by Dexia

Belgium is also in sight. The agenceMoody's said it was considering lowering its rating, currently at "Aa1", the second best possible. The agency cited three reasons: the crisis in the euro area, concerns for economic growth and the possibility of additional support to the banking system, particularly in establishing Franco-Belgian Dexia.

Another European country in turmoil, Portugal, has been confirmed its rating of "BBB-" (the last before falling into the category of "speculative") by Fitch, which continued on negative watch at least until the end of the year.Standard & Poor's, confirmed Tuesday the rating "BBB-" from Portugal, while maintaining it as a negative outlook. Portugal, the third country in the eurozone after Greece and Ireland to receive international financial assistance, is facing new economic challenges that undermine his efforts to clean up its public accounts. Progress in implementing the program of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and its budget for 2012 will be crucial.

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Vallourec disappoints investors. In a statement on the occasion of an investor day in Brazil, the Group revises down slightly its forecast for gross operating profit (EBITDA). "Considering the cautious attitude of distributors in markets outside energy due to economic uncertainty, the EBITDA of the second half of 2011 should be at a level similar to that of the first half of 2011," said the group was counting far on a GOP "slightly higher".

Intended as reassuring, Vallourec ensures that the environment is now positive for the energy markets it supplies.It provides always an increase in production output and turnover in the second half, compared to the first, as he had indicated at the end of July release of its first half results.

Good prospects ahead

For operators of the Paris Bourse, this caution does not reassure. To 11 hours, unscrewed from the Vallourec share price 4.30% to 42.09 euros in a market down 0.40%. Time reserved for the decline, the title was back in the fall of scoring more than 8% in early trade. "This is another disappointment confirming our negative scenario for action in the short term," said one trader faxless cash advance.

CM-CIC has also reduced its earnings forecast for the coming years. However, "after two years of transition in 2011 and 2012, the recovery results in 2013 will be very sensitive," the broker understands."Vallourec has shown that the evolution of its global business model will make the group more competitive and increase significantly its medium-term results."

This view is shared by the management of Vallourec, which considers that the negative impact of new projects, including the new steel mill and pipe mill in Brazil and the mill in the United States who will be commissioned in mid-2012, the Gross operation of 2012 should be reduced to about 60 to 80 million euros. The next year should also benefit from price increases implemented in 2011. The group should provide more detail on this last point when publishing its quarterly results on November 9.

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The contract whopping 42.6 million euros a year signed between the French Football Federation (FFF) and Nike Will it deflate like an old windbag? Girls Team France soccer unwittingly gave a good penknife into the balloon in qualifying, against all odds, for the 2012 Olympic Games.

Background: In 2008, The Christmas Graët, then vice-president of the FFF, signs the "Contract of the Century" with Nike: 320 million for the period 2011-2018. This negotiation will be the argument of his election as president. At that price, the Graët sells equipment for national teams.And bang, that the France team that female become pampered football in France, makes his way to the London Games guaranteed high risk personal loans.

Problem: all the French Olympic teams – football, basketball, athletics – must participate in the Olympic Games under the banner of Adidas, the equipment of the National Olympic Committee of French sport (CNOSF). This did not escape the law of Nike, which, according to RMC, call … € 10 million for breach of contract! The CNOSF, attacked on his prerogatives and paid by Adidas, will not compromise. Nike either. One of two things: either the new president of the FFF "sold" which does not belong to him or he had bet on the failure of the Blue qualifications.Charles Gautier

Finally down. After rising continuously for two years, property prices in France fell 2.7% in the third quarter. An observation made by Century 21, one of the largest networks of estate agents. Attention, the phenomenon is not felt the same way everywhere.

The price per square meter have ebbed in seven regions, only one out of three. The most dramatic decline (-9.7%) occurred in Burgundy. Overall, the square meter reached 2621 euros on average in the Hexagon. This downward trend for most homes (-4%) than apartments (-0.8%). "This illustrates a trend that is not new, said Laurent Vimont, CEO of Century 21.Not to be too far from their workplaces, are the buyers prefer to live in inner cities where there are more apartments in suburbs where the houses are built. "

Contrary to what one might imagine, the ups and downs of the stock market and the threat of recession do not even buyers of housing. The decline in prices has a much more immediate cause: rising interest rates on home loans now in the neighborhood of 3.9%. "In recent months, buyers have lost purchasing power of real estate, says Laurent Vimont. In the second half of 2010, paying 1,000 euros a month for twenty years, they could borrow 172,400 euros.Today, with the same reimbursement for the same period, they can not borrow 160,800 Euros. "This increase in interest rates has an impact because in France, on average, 77% of the purchase of a property is financed with a mortgage.

But everybody does not suffer the same way that rising interest rates. Most affected are first-time buyers under 40 years, the number has dropped by 18%. But also the CSP (occupational categories) the least favored: the employees and workers down 17% or middle managers decreased by 12% among the buyers.

Yves Rocher wins first place in the ranking of companies preferred the French. This is indicated by the barometer Posternak / Ipsos released Sunday. According to a survey conducted in late September, the specialist in cosmetic dethroned then Peugeot. For Claude Posternak, chairman of the communications agency quoted by the Journal du Dimanche, the ranking "award both a cost-speaking consumers in times of crisis, a successful family business dynamic in the world and Finally a good fit with the expectations of society for more naturalness. "

Yves Rocher then steals the show from Citroen and Peugeot, which occupy the second and third place.Both brands of PSA, used to the top of the rankings are closely followed by Airbus, the only company in the first ten to score an increase over the previous edition dated June.

Banks still pending

Buffeted by the stock market, banks are unloved by the French. Frontlines to the problems of sovereign debt in the euro zone, this side of love see their melting: the index of average image of the banking sector down 18 points at half. Societe Generale dropped to 29th place out of 30 (-38 points), BNP Paribas in 28th place (30 points), Crédit Agricole on the 25th (29 points) behind the Crédit Lyonnais, 24th (14 points).The gap widens further with mutual banks, which enjoy a good opinion among respondents, like the Crédit Mutuel, ranking 11th.

L'Oreal, the 17th is still suffering from the case Bettencourt while Total is the least loved the company of the French, "crystallizing on behalf sensitive issues: the environment, purchasing power, sharing of wealth and taxation," says Claude Posternak. Overall, it notes that the average index of the image of French companies dropped sharply (-8 points). A decline that is equal to that which followed the subprime crisis in 2008.

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