After a marathon day yesterday crisis between the euro area and global economic issues, the G20 continues this Friday at Cannes. Nicolas Sarkozy, master of ceremonies, will have his hands between preparations for the final communiqué and placed under international trusteeship of Italy payday loans no teletrack.
"Reliving the day Thursday
2010 marks a departure for French exports of military equipment. With a total of 5.12 billion euros, they are falling over 8.1 billion garnered in 2009 (6.5 billion in 2008). The objective of Paris was to beat all its records by signing for "at least 10 billion of export contracts" is more or less the equivalent of what the French army spending for its own every year.
Nevertheless, the government notes in the twelfth edition of its report to parliament on arms exports to France for 2010, "France has maintained fourth largest exporter of defense equipment (…) in a situation difficult ".
The world export market has stabilized at 70 billion euros.And in total military spending worldwide have slowed to 1.127 trillion euros, an increase of over 1% against a growth of 5% per year between 2001 and 2009. "Over the decade," the report notes, "the United States, the European Union, where Britain and France stand out, Russia and Israel share 90% of the export market."
The decline in export activity in 2010 due to the lag of several large contracts – as in 2009, with sales in Brazil of four submarines and 50 helicopters – that France hoped to sign the year last.
Remarkable performances
In discussions since 2009, the contract for the sale of two ships of projection and command (BPC) Mistral class in Russia was finally signed in June 2011 between DCNS and Rosoboronexport to 1.1 billion euros.It is therefore not recorded in 2010.
And ongoing negotiations with several countries to sell the Rafale combat aircraft built by Dassault Aviation, have not yet been completed. Among the most promising, the Brazilian has cooled with the decision of the President Rousseff to defer any decision to buy 36 fighter in 2012. The second, United Arab Emirates, is still active.
Negotiations, that France hoped to see succeed in 2010, continues with Abu Dhabi. Just over a week, Gerard Longuet had found that Paris had entered "a final negotiation." The defense minister had described as "very high" probability that the contract is concluded. France and the UAE have been negotiating the sale of 2008 copies of 60 Rafale.The French fighter is also short list in India along with the Eurofighter, developed by EADS, BAE and Finmeccanica to supply 126 aircraft to the Indian Army.
France can also expect to have the benefits of its commitment to Libya where the effectiveness of French equipment was again demonstrated (after including Afghanistan) under real conditions in a theater of operation. Of these, the performance of Tiger helicopters (EADS) and the Rafale, whose versatility allows him to perform all the tasks (surveillance, attack in depth, defensive etc.) were noted. "This is the only aircraft in the world capable of performing such a feat today," says a military engaged in Operation Harmattan.
For France, the stakes are high because the Rafale irrigates the French industry, including Ile-de-France and Aquitaine.The French fighter involved 500 industrial partners and represents more than 8000 jobs in total.
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The U.S. stock markets have opened up slightly on Thursday. The Dow Jones ceded piointse 11495 0.08% and the Nasdaq 0.26% to 2597 points. The session should be again marked by rumors coming negotiations between the Europeans. This uncertainty should urge caution, especially as the latest results of companies from the United States are often disappointing and does not encourage optimism. Yesterday, Wall Street took a break.
Investors are in effect suspended the decisions that should be taken after the EU summit to be held this Sunday. Before this appointment crucial for the future of the euro area, policy-makers of the Old Continent has already promised that a solution to the crisis would be found.
Meanwhile, last minute negotiations are increasing.According to Reuters, citing a paper, "e European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), will be able to buy bonds on the secondary market" if the countries in the euro area concerned so requests and obtain agreement European authorities.
Following the publication of this document, the euro hit a session high of 1.3838 against the dollar, the European stock markets have erased much of their losses and future on the major indexes on Wall Street resumed a little high. Expanding the powers of the EFSF and increasing its firepower at the heart of the plan for resolving the debt crisis in the euro area. The European Council of Sunday should be an opportunity to specify the details of how the EFSF will be used.
Wednesday, Nicolas Sarkozy traveled to Frankfurt to urgently resolve differences directly with France and Germany Angela Merkel.No information was available for this meeting. The Wall Street Journal, the discussions would focus on the possibility of allowing the EFSF to provide collateral to support bonds issued by countries in need rather than use it to provide direct guarantees.
The Beige Book calls for caution
On Wall Street, the report of conditions in the U.S. central bank (Beige Book) yesterday also a moment of caution.The information gathered by the regional branches of the Fed indicate that overall economic activity rose slightly in September but they also point out that corporate earnings have not improved payday advance.
Finally Moody's said Wednesday night that lowered the rating by one notch from five major Spanish banks, following its decision to degrade the sovereign rating of that country.
Chapter macroeconomic across the Atlantic, weekly claims for unemployment benefits will be published 16 hours as well as sales of existing homes in September and the composite indicator of the economy.Activity in the Philadelphia area in October, which often appears an early indication of economic conditions in the United States, will also be unveiled in 16 hours.
New salvo of results
A Wall Street investors dissect a new salvo of results.
After the close of Wall Street, American Express has released the third quarter earnings of $ 1.24 billion, a net income per share of $ 1.03 against $ 0.96 expected and $ 0.9 year past. The turnover stood at 7.57 billion dollars, according to estimates.
Ebay announced a profit of $ 491 million, or 37 cents a share in the third quarter, in line with expectations.The turnover amounted to 2.97 billion dollars against 2.91 billion expected.
Edwards Lifesciences has recorded a net profit of $ 51.6 million in the third quarter, against 48 million a year earlier.
Noble Corporation saw its net income nearly tripled in the third quarter to $ 135 million against 54 million last quarter.
Stryker has done for the third quarter, a turnover of $ 2 billion, up 14.9%, and earnings per share of $ 0.91, up 13.8%.
Wynn Resorts has achieved a net sales in the third quarter of $ 1.3 billion, against $ 1 billion last year.Adjusted net income totaled $ 133 million or $ 1.05 per share, against 49 million or $ 0.39 a year earlier.
On Thursday, Philip Morris International will release its figures before the opening of Wall Street and Microsoft after closing.
The publication of the sales of LVMH this morning, showing a 15% increase in sales in the first nine months of the year, shows that the luxury sector is beyond the gloom. It is now concentrated around a very small number of listed companies. To play the stock market, investors in Europe the choice of three values: LVMH and Hermes International in France and the Swiss Richemont, owner of brands including Cartier, Montblanc, Alfred Dunhill and Lancel.
In exchange, these groups are distinguished by the same characteristics. First of all, a very strong sales growth which is an essential element of appreciation to investors at a time when fears of a slowdown are increasingly strong in manufacturing and services.Markets expect according to the consensus published by Bloomberg in a 19.2% increase in sales of LMVH this year, against only 10.2% growth on average for the CAC 40 companies (excluding financials). Hermès expectations are even higher (25%). Richemont is penalized by the rise of the Swiss franc, but the market expects (excluding currency effects) to a 19% increase in sales, a level equivalent to that of the previous year.
Good resilience to the crisis
Most of the increase in sales due to the presence of these groups in emerging markets where growth remains strong. LVMH achieves almost 40% of its sales in Asia and the region at Hermès International represented 45.3% of sales in the first half to 590.9 million euros.Although the annual rate of China's growth fell from 9.5 to 9.1% in late September, the outlook for luxury business are very well oriented in these regions.
This exceptional situation leads to multiple capitalization rates of 16.5 and 16.8 times earnings expected for 2011 for LVMH and Richemont, which places them at levels much higher than the 8.6 expected for the CAC 40. Hermes is the subject of recurring rumors of a takeover bid, particularly on the part of LVMH, is paid for his part more than 48 times earnings estimates for the current year. In exchange, a high multiple is certainly synonymous with vulnerability, but in the minds of investors, it is clearly synonymous with exceptional value.
Result, in contrast to Richemont who suffer from the appreciation of the Swiss franc, most of these titles were very well in the market downturn.The course of LVMH declined only 9.4% since the beginning of the year and one of Hermes International prances among the highest growth of the year with a 50% increase since 1 January. While much of this increase was due to speculative buying, what are the prospects for growth and profitability that reassure investors.
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On the menu of the G20 Finance, the crisis of the euro area and the slowing world economy wiped out all other subjects dear to President Nicolas Sarkozy. Reform the international monetary system to reduce the large global imbalances. At the summit this Friday in Paris, the finance ministers of major economic powers should demand accountability from their counterparts in the euro area.
Statements prior to the summit leaves no room for doubt. The leaders of the G20 countries are working on a short-term plan to stop the economic downturn and reduce the impact of the crisis in the euro area, said a Canadian official on his way to Paris. The G20 will not replace the euro area in the resolution of the Greek crisis, however, he warned.
"The meetings focus on how to increase the resources available to deal with the crisis and stabilize the markets", said Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Zhu. The Europeans would like to see the great powers increase the resources of the IMF so that it can lend more to countries in the eurozone in trouble. "Of course they want, the Chinese Minister has responded. But we have just discussed. "Understand: nothing has been decided to date.
"The resources of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF, the support mechanism in the euro area) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be inadequate if the contagion (of the crisis in the euro area) continued" said Pravin Gordhan Finance Minister of South Africa on Friday.In this case, the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) "indicated that they would be likely to support international institutions if they were asked no fax payday advances."
No decisions
The G20 finance ministers this Friday should not result in decisions, the Canadian official has warned. Rather it is to prepare the final summit of the French Presidency of the G20, on 3-4 November in Cannes, which will bring together heads of states of representing 85% of the global economy. "Europeans should explore the support that this Friday is prepared to give them their Chinese counterparts, American and Japanese decrypts Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale CIB.Investors hope the G20 in November resulted in a plan likely to change that. "
Meanwhile, finance ministers French, Italian and German should have the barrage of questions from their peers about their response to the crisis. "The adverse consequences of delaying the solution are just bigger," expressed concern Thursday Lael Brainard, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary for International Affairs "Given the growing risks that threaten the recovery, the U.S. will intensified their call for determined action. "The Europeans are on notice: they must find a solution to the crisis at their next summit, Sunday, October 23.
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Vallourec disappoints investors. In a statement on the occasion of an investor day in Brazil, the Group revises down slightly its forecast for gross operating profit (EBITDA). "Considering the cautious attitude of distributors in markets outside energy due to economic uncertainty, the EBITDA of the second half of 2011 should be at a level similar to that of the first half of 2011," said the group was counting far on a GOP "slightly higher".
Intended as reassuring, Vallourec ensures that the environment is now positive for the energy markets it supplies.It provides always an increase in production output and turnover in the second half, compared to the first, as he had indicated at the end of July release of its first half results.
Good prospects ahead
For operators of the Paris Bourse, this caution does not reassure. To 11 hours, unscrewed from the Vallourec share price 4.30% to 42.09 euros in a market down 0.40%. Time reserved for the decline, the title was back in the fall of scoring more than 8% in early trade. "This is another disappointment confirming our negative scenario for action in the short term," said one trader faxless cash advance.
CM-CIC has also reduced its earnings forecast for the coming years. However, "after two years of transition in 2011 and 2012, the recovery results in 2013 will be very sensitive," the broker understands."Vallourec has shown that the evolution of its global business model will make the group more competitive and increase significantly its medium-term results."
This view is shared by the management of Vallourec, which considers that the negative impact of new projects, including the new steel mill and pipe mill in Brazil and the mill in the United States who will be commissioned in mid-2012, the Gross operation of 2012 should be reduced to about 60 to 80 million euros. The next year should also benefit from price increases implemented in 2011. The group should provide more detail on this last point when publishing its quarterly results on November 9.
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The optimism was tinged with a slight caution. After Tuesday's rebound, which saw the Nikkei finished up sharply from 2.82%, Asian stock markets continued their upward trend, but less strongly than the day before. After opening up 0.15%, the index shows Tokyo, less than an hour from the close, up 0.29% to 8635.23 points. The Korean KOSPI ahead of his side of 0.47% and the composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange of 0.18%. Only the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, which opened down 1.42%, remains in the red, down 0.90% to 17,967.30 points. Wednesday, he had won more than 4%.
As on Wall Street where the Dow Jones ended up on 1.33% and Europe, where the CAC surged 5.74%, Asian investors have earned by renewed optimism on the resolution of the crisis debt in the eurozone.According to various sources, Europeans should indeed decide to stabilize Greece and the banking sector business cards. Strengthening the emergency fund indebted countries (EFSF) was particularly mentioned.
The yen also paused in its upward trend against the dollar, which has benefited some export values, especially in electronics and automotive. The dollar is changing around 76.54 yen while the euro is worth about 103.81 yen. As for the oil markets, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery lost 1.25 dollars to 83.20 dollars in early electronic trading. A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gave 96 cents to 106.18 dollars.The previous day, oil had spread over 4 dollars in New York.
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The U.S. stock markets accentuate their losses on Wednesday. Shortly after the announcements of the Fed, the Dow drops 1.26% to 11,265 points, the Nasdaq 0.44% to loose 2579 points and the S & P was down 1.50% to 1184 points.
In accordance with the expectations of investors, the central bank of the United States announced new measures to support the U.S. economy. It will sell by the end of June 2012 for $ 400 billion of treasury bills and short-term buy for the same amount with a longer maturity in an attempt to lower interest rates in the long term ( it "Operation Twist"). To support the mortgage market, it will also buy real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio, according to the Committee.
But markets that find especially its verdict on the economy is not good.The recovery is considered "slow", hence maintaining the rate to almost zero "until mid 2013."
These remarks are similar to those Dufond International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised the specter of a global recession and launched at policy makers in the world "a fervent call to action". At the same time the institution has significantly downgraded its growth forecasts for the global economy. This is expected to grow 4% in 2011 as in 2012, 0.5 points below its previous forecast of 4.5% last April.
Markets always attentive to the crisis in the eurozone
Investors also remain attentive to developments in the crisis of public finances in Europe.Greece announced on the evening of its intention to launch new austerity measures to convince the Troika of its creditors and obtain payment of a new tranche of aid in October that will allow it to avoid bankruptcy.
Wednesday Rousseff, the president of Brazil, Barack Obama has assured his support for the euro area, together with other emerging countries, as it had already mentioned a week ago.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro lost some ground against the dollar after the Fed. The euro bought 1.3616 dollars late in the session on Wall Street against 1.3702 dollars late Tuesday. The price of a barrel of oil closed lower. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery ended down a dollar to 85.92 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).He had opened down 14 cents, and had rebounded upward after stock figures showing a sharp decline in U.S. reserves.
On the macroeconomic front, sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose 7.7% from July, seasonally adjusted data, the NAR said that sales figures are higher than the median estimate of analysts payday loans.
Microsoft treats its shareholders
The side of values, Moody's said Wednesday it lowered the credit ratings of Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on the ground that the Federal government may be reluctant to rush to the aid of large banking institutions in difficulty.
The oil company ExxonMobil (+0.11% A74, 09 dollars) will sell of deposits in the North Sea to fellow Apache through $ 1.75 billion in cash, announced Wednesday it.
Microsoft (-0.85% to 26.75 dollars) announced Tuesday evening after the close of Wall Street that it would increase the quarterly dividend 25% used to its shareholders. The dividend paid on December 8 will be increased to $ 0.20 per share, or $ 0.04 higher than the previous one. Also in order to treat his shareholders Microsoft also recalled that he had launched in September 2008 a program to repurchase its own shares for 40 billion dollars. Of this amount, the group can still make $ 12.2 billion of purchases before the scheduled end of the program in September 2013.
Also after the close, Adobe Systems (3.25% to 25.44 dollars) announced better than expected forecasts for the fourth quarter. The group expects adjusted earnings between 57 and 64 cents per share in the fourth quarter, against 58 cents expected by the consensus of analysts.The leading design software issued a profit of $ 195.1 million, or 39 cents Park share in the third quarter against 230.1 million dollars, or 44 cents a share, a year earlier. Turnover increased by 2% to $ 1.01 billion.
Still in the world of technology stocks, Oracle (6.88% to 30.30 dollars) has issued a net profit up 36% to $ 1.84 billion, just above expectations.The turnover to 8.37 billion, also slightly above what had been expected analysts (8360000000).
American Electric Power (-0.30% to 38.20 dollars) and its joint venture with MidAmerican Energy has been approved by the Texas authorities for electrical infrastructure projects for a total estimated at more than $ 520 million.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (0.35% to 1.60 dollars) and Japan's Ono Pharmaceutical has signed a development and commercialization of Orencia, a biological treatment against rheumatoid arthritis.
FMC Technologies (0.56% to 43.37 dollars) has won a contract worth $ 135 million from BG Norge in the manufacture of subsea equipment.
Medtronic (0.37% to 34.95 dollars) will receive 101 million in damages after the trial against the company by NuVasive.
The Paris Bourse closed this week very agitated in the green. This Friday, the CAC 40 ended on a net increase of 4.02% to 3213.88. The London Stock Exchange gained 3.04% at the close, the DAX 3.45% to 5997.74 points, Milan 4%. But everywhere, the sessions have been very volatile in trading volume lower than the previous day (4.84 billion euros in Paris).
The CAC 40 is thus fell into the red immediately after opening up 0.17%. It still yielded 1.59% in morning before rising slope, and show an increase of 2.09% to 3154 points in mid-session.Around 16:15, the Paris index gained 2.76% to 3174.79 even despite the publication items, across the Atlantic, two mixed macroeconomic statistics that have hampered the enthusiasm of investors in New York.
Retail sales in the U.S. in July and were up 0.5% (after 0.3% in June), but the U.S. consumer confidence has it, fell in August. According to an index released Friday by the University of Michigan, which stood at 54.9, its lowest level since it is established, either since 1966. This drop has surprised analysts who had forecast a smaller drop to 62.5.
No growth in the second quarter
On the macroeconomic front in France, INSEE reported this morning from zero growth in the second quarter in France (0.0%), against an increase of 0.9% in the first quarter.Inflation also slowed: the consumer prices fell by 0.4% in July, resulting in an increase of 1.9% over the year (against 2.1% from June 2010 to June 2011 ).
Faced with these new investors are so cautious again after a week marked by extreme market volatility, which saw the CAC 40 push the psychological threshold of 3000 points during the session Thursday. Investors were finally reassured by the announcement of a meeting between Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on August 16 to issue joint proposals on the governance of the euro area.
Bank stocks rebound
Since the ban on short selling in the securities of eleven banks and insurance companies to counter the extreme volatility of the stock market values, the latter continuing their rebound started the day before, the image of BNP Paribas (4, 91% to 37.47 euros), which issued a statement Thursday night to reaffirm the strength of its capital, Societe Generale (3.15% to 23.72 euros) and Credit Agricole (1.77% to 6 , 49 euros).
Natixis wins 7.26% to 3.06 euros and signs the largest increase in the CAC.
Carrefour jumps more than 5%
Other values to follow, Carrefour pulls out of the game: the way ahead vigorously 5.13% to 18.85 euros.U.S. giant Wal-Mart have mandated UBS to investigate the acquisition of the Brazilian subsidiary of French retailer, according to Reuters citing a source familiar with the matter.
Goldman Sachs lowered its recommendation on Lafarge (-0.17% to 28.96 euros) and withdrew the title from its list of recommended values in priority to the purchase.The intermediary has instead built his list to Saint-Gobain (3.72% to 34 euros) and Vinci (2.42% to 35.3 euros).
Europacorp (3.13% to 3.30 euros), the production company of Luc Besson, Thursday reaffirmed its goal of a return to balance for the current year, despite a sharp decline its turnover in the first quarter.
Derichebourg (2.98% to 3.63 euros) on Thursday confirmed its target of improving its annual net income, after recording a sharp increase in sales over the first nine months of the year.
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The timing could not be worse for Levi's. The king of denim, which had just launched its new global campaign "Levi's Legacy" earlier this week, was forced to turn back to the UK market. The spot, shot in Berlin before the events in London, reveals, in fact, scenes of young people in clashes with security forces. Demonstrations, riots, smoke: the images are too echoed the news, depending on the brand:
Called "Go Forth" (On the Move in French), signed by the advertising agency Wieden + Kennedy American, calls young people to take their destiny. The message is reinforced by the recitation of a poem by Charles Bukowski, The Laughing Heart, to the very explicit (your life is your life / do not be discouraged by a tender moist / Be on the lookout)."Because of what's happening in the UK, we have temporarily postponed the release in cinemas and on Facebook in the country," said a spokesperson for the brand with the Daily Mail. He added that "Go Forth to embody the energy and events of our time. She does not speak of a political movement or a specific theme, but rather evokes optimism, positivism and the entrepreneurial spirit. "
The spot has also been removed from the official Facebook page for the brand. "We have all witnessed the recent events that took place in London and other cities in England. It is difficult to see a glimmer of hope amid the violence. But looking good, you will see it no fax payday loan. Not one of the riots and chaos. But through its citizens who take the broom to clean up their cities. It is through their pioneering spirit that make change possible, "says Levi's on Facebook.
Stunt involuntary RIM
Even if the manufacturer of jeans trying to detach events, riots in London have a real spotlight on its new advertising campaign. A promotion that seems to also affect involuntary RIM, the maker of BlackBerry. His e-mail service that equips its phones BBM, known to provide a guarantee of confidentiality of trade, is under the spotlight. Now it plays an important role in organizing the riots. The British press also devotes a large part in deciphering the events.
But this stunt could serve the image of RIM on the UK market.Already some voices calling for the closure of the service in England, prompting the direction of the Canadian manufacturer to announce, without further detail, cooperation "with local telecom operators, the police and government" of the country if so requested.
This collaboration could involve the closure of the service. The risk is important for the Canadian manufacturer that could alienate her young local clientele. According to a study released last week Ofcom, the BlackBerry is currently the favorite of the English smartphones of 16-24 years (37%) to the iPhone (25%).
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