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"We must reform the rating market"

Monday Jul 4, 2011

Alongside the giants Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, "small" credit rating agencies are somewhat more severe in their ratings of sovereign debt …

In fact, earlier this year, more than half of Canadian sovereign ratings by DBRS, and the Japanese JCR and Rating & Investment (the three "small" agencies enjoying a certain notoriety) are quite correlated, and appear on average equivalent to Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's. Chinese Dagong, however, stands out, since at best one third of his notes are the same as those of Moody's, Fitch and S & P. These notes have several characteristics. First, the "ratings" assigned by Dagong the major emerging countries [Brazil, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, note] are significantly higher than those of Western agencies.Then, his notes to the major industrialized countries [North America, Europe and Japan] are much lower than those of Western agencies. In both cases, the differential of notes can reach four notches, which is considerable.

What credit can we give these agencies?

They have mainly local influence, at best regional. So even if DBRS has a good reputation, is most active in Canada and the United States. It is also accredited by the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission, Constable of the U.S. markets]. But it suffers from a lack of notoriety outside of North America. As for JCR and Rating & Investment, these agencies have an influence on the Asian continent, but tend to "surnoter" Asian debt issuers. Both are accredited by the SEC. However, Dagong this accreditation was denied two years ago.The U.S. authorities have found it too especially in the political influence of Beijing. Since then, Dagong never ceases to publish reports critical of both the U.S. monetary and fiscal policy, that the action of three. In summary, Dagong tries to embody the alternative in the rating industry. It is aware that the financial difficulties of the United States and several European countries confirm their views. Still, recent events such as doubts about the sustainability of the euro area and the uncertainties about the ability of the United States to halt the spiral of debt due to give Dagong.

Some leading economists, such as Patrick Artus (Natixis), Dagong now estimate that better reflects the reality, particularly offended to see the 'big three' to keep a high rating for U.S. debt.What do you think?

I share the view of Patrick Artus on the fact that the ratings of several countries are excessively high. Fitch, Moody's and S & P "surnoté" Greece and many European countries because they have seen, wrongly, that membership in the euro area reduces the risk of insolvency overnight pay day loans… It was a mistake. States whose public debt has risen sharply over the past decade that have not reorganized their welfare state and have sufficiently reformed their pension system should be degraded. However, I also think that Dagong "surnote" some emerging, such as China, Russia and South Africa. In detail, the "overweight" on criteria such as economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, but neglects the indicators of political and institutional stability, not thinking enough in terms of debt sustainability.For industrialized countries recorded a triple and double "A" by Fitch, Moody's and S & P can afford debt levels higher than those of emerging markets, given the importance of the middle class, better social cohesion, and greater ease in accessing capital markets.

In a context of debt crisis, and after the disappointments of the "Big Three" during the crisis (widely criticized, especially for high marks stamped toxic financial products) these agencies for the time being heard by some markets , she can gain influence?

For four years, it's true that small agencies, few involved in these scandals, have the opportunity to hold their own in the game but break into the industry rating is very difficult because the three major agencies hold almost all (95%) market share.To me, small agencies have only two possible strategies: either they specialize in industry niches or geographic, or they differ in their diagnoses and notations, like Dagong.

Do we need more competition in the industry of the rating?

Yes, and again, the new entrants will be more positive than their ratings diverge from those of the 'big three'. This can particularly help reduce the effects of mimicry on the markets. But regulators must ensure, however, that increased competition does not lead to an inflation of ratings that may be confusing. In addition to competition, agencies must review their methodologies.In the future, agencies should lower the country notes that even in times of growth, are unable to reduce their deficits, as these states will be vulnerable in the first economic downturn. This type of care would include agencies to better anticipate the debt crises.

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Areva on track for a power plant in Finland

Saturday Jul 2, 2011

The catastrophe of Fukushima has not cooled the ardor "nuclear" in Finland. Three and a half months after the accident on several reactors in Japan, the electrician Fennovoima officially launched a tender to build a new plant, which will be the sixth of the country. Four are already operating, while the fifth, Olkiluoto 3, the site is controlled by the French group Areva, will enter service in 2012.

The same Japanese Areva and Toshiba are the two groups identified by Fennovoima to participate in the tender whose outcome is expected for 2012-2013. The dual French-Japanese technology will also be a clash between the pressurized water reactor, the EPR, proposed by the European company, while his opponent defends an Asian model for boiling water, the ABWR.Both show a roughly similar power.

It's been exactly one year that Finland has launched the process to build new nuclear generation capacity. In July 2010, two electricians, TVO and Fennovoima have been authorized by Parliament to build each plant bad credit pay day loans. Since then, Fennovoima has selected two sites to host this facility. Meanwhile, the group sifted through the different reactor technologies before choosing the respective models of Areva and Toshiba.

Three years late

For TVO, things are a little different. The tender for an additional reactor is not yet launched, but the first Finnish utility is already working with Areva as operate the Olkiluoto 3.Incidentally, the fact that Fennovoima has chosen to confront the French technology Toshiba shows that the Finnish authorities have not focused too much on the delay of the Olkiluoto site. This effect will be delivered in three years late, while the bill has almost doubled to 6 billion euros, against a budget of 3.5 billion initially.

But it must be said that the catastrophe of Fukushima had beneficial consequences for the EPR. Its high level of security has become a very significant advantage.


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The Cac 40 in the red before the European meeting

Thursday Jun 23, 2011

The Paris market continues to fall on Thursday, a reflection of what has been observed in Asian markets this morning and the decline in U.S. indices yesterday. Wednesday evening, the Cac 40 lost 0.15% and ended at 3871.37 points in a very dynamic market, with over 7.1 billion traded on the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse. And on Thursday, sitting in the middle of the index still declined 1.34% to 3819.50 points.

PMI purchasing managers in the euro area fell in June to its lowest for twenty months to 53.6 points, confirming a slowdown in European economic activity.The growth of private sector activity in France has slowed more than expected in June.

European side, European leaders find themselves on Thursday night in Brussels at a summit to try to reassure their ability to stem the endless debt crisis in Greece and prevent contagion throughout the euro area, which worries more and more abroad. Other items on the agenda: the confirmation of the appointment in November of the Italian Mario Draghi as President of the ECB to replace Jean-Claude Trichet.

The publication of the memo on the economy of France, to be released at 22 o'clock tonight, will be watching. In addition, the G20 agricultural ends today. In addition, Christine Lagarde, a candidate for the general direction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), spends his oral exam today in Washington.The maintenance of his rival, Mexico's Agustin Carstens, was held Tuesday.

United States, a report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday warned against an explosion of net public debt, which can reach 100% of GDP by 2021 if nothing is done to correct the current trajectory. In addition, the U.S. central bank is now focusing on a GDP increase of less than 3% in the fourth quarter. New measures could be considered if the economic situation deteriorated.

On the currency markets, the euro fell sharply against the dollar on Thursday, as the market digested the Fed announcements. The single European currency was worth 1.4254 dollars against 1.4349 late Wednesday.

EDF denies

The CAC 40, only Pernod Ricard rises in green: + 0.06% to 66.49 euros.But in the SBF 120, Lagardère stands: + 2.33% to 27.40 euros. Areva takes him 0.59% to 25.50 euros.

Side drops, banks suffer: BNP Paribas lost 1.86%, 1.69% Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis 2.1% 2.08% while trades a private sector participation to a new aid plan to Greece. European banks resisted, however, a defect in Greece, according to Bernard de Longevialle, head of bank ratings at Standard & Poor's. Note that BNP Paribas bought 25% of Findomestic to the bank Intesa Sanpaolo for 629 million euros and now holds 100%.

EDF (-1.23% to 25.78 euros), which plunged 3% yesterday at the meeting, had to deny rumors of leaks in nuclear plants in France instant credit reports.The CGT has nevertheless confirmed that called for an end of a reactor at the plant in Seine-Maritime Paluel due to extraordinary levels of radioactivity. The electrician has admitted it yesterday "an accumulation of small differences" after the publication of an article Mediapart citing incidents in series.

In addition, the dean of French nuclear reactors, the central Fessenheim, would be allowed in the coming days to continue to operate for ten years.

EDF is also increased to 96.71% of share capital and voting rights of EDF Energies Nouvelles after the public offer launched on its subsidiary, announced Thursday the AMF in a statement.

EADS (1.30% to 22.14 euros).The low-cost Malaysian airline AirAsia has placed a firm order for 200 Airbus A320 Neo, a record in civil aviation in the number of devices including vendus.Grâce this mega-contract, the total firm orders for Airbus is to about $ 58 billion for 621 aircraft. The buyers of the Airbus A400M signed a framework agreement on the development and maintenance of the fleet of the future military transport aircraft. Furthermore, after signing an order for sixteen billion dollars with Indigo.American Airlines could also favor the European aircraft manufacturer at the expense of its rival Boeing.

Air France-KLM lost 2.06% to 10.21 euros.

Dassault Systemes (-0.96% to 57.18 euros, the largest decline rating) expects a double-digit increase in sales in the aerospace and defense between 2010 and 2014 thanks to the many innovations offered by these sectors, Reuters said Wednesday its chief executive Bernard Charles said in an interview.

Automobile manufacturers seek to diversify their income and increase customer loyalty.

Peugeot (-0.40% to 29.77 euros) PSA installed production capacity that should allow it to manufacture more than 30,000 hybrid vehicles per year, reports La Tribune. "At Sochaux, we expect a potential of 70 to 80 units per day," says Serge Isler, project 3008 Peugeot hybrid.In addition, PSA has manufactured in Rennes, Brittany, just over 15,000 Peugeot 508 equipped with the same technology, the paper said.

The vaccine against typhoid Sanofi (-0.36% to 52.63 euros) was granted the status of "prequalification" of the World Health Organization (WHO), prior to its use by UNICEF and other international agencies, a first for a vaccine of this type, the group announced Thursday.

PPR (-0.60% to 116.80 euros) holds 87.4% of the U.S. manufacturer of sports clothing Volcom at the end of its tender offer (OPA) is friendly and able to reach 90% capital by playing an option, according to a statement released Thursday by the French group.

"COMPETITION – Estimate the Cac 40 in late June

.


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A museum to learn economics in fun

Friday May 27, 2011

The city's economy and currency, including the Bank of France on Wednesday unveiled plans will be the equivalent of the CSI de la Villette. "An ambitious educational project and citizen supposed to receive 100,000 visitors a year from 2014, of which 50% of schools. The investment is around 30 million euros. It will decrypt "the economic mechanisms, monetary and financial information" through "interactive presentations and fun." Even if it fills a gap in a country where economic culture is deemed poor, the announcement would be commonplace.

His place is much less. Extension for this company, the Bank of France has chosen the Plaine Monceau, one of the most exclusive districts of Paris. She intends to kill two birds with one stone. The splendid Hotel Gaillard, neo-Renaissance style, built in 1882 and situated place du General Catroux, was one of its three branches in Paris.It will be rehabilitated and converted into 'space museum. " The architecture will be preserved, especially the amazing vault surrounded by a moat. Former clients, such as Earl Moses Camondo neighbors who came to place their treasures, would be very surprised that we devote so much effort to explain the money. They were trained on the job.

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Solidarity savings jumped 30% in 2010

Thursday May 19, 2011

Solidarity savings gaining weight. As evidenced by the latest barometer of the association Finansol group of leading financiers in solidarity with the Hexagon, its stock is around 3.15 billion euros at the end of December 2010, an increase of 31% compared to the previous year. "Every family of products grew with rates of 15-50%," says Finansol in a statement. Even if these good figures owe much to the legal requirement for companies to make socially responsible funds in their employee savings schemes, which weighs half of the total outstanding.And they must also be compared to the total amount saved each year by the French, which is around 250 billion euros.

Journalist expert on the subject, and author of "Solidarity savings for Dummies" (available since May 12 First Editions), Eric Larpin believes that such legislation has almost doubled the number of savers, who passed the bar of 700,000 people. Ultimately, these funds are supporting local projects of SMEs and cooperatives in sectors "of recycling, recovery, fair trade, organic farming or carpool," recites the journalist.

These are all areas where it is difficult to get funds."Companies faced in my work always tell the same story: their case was set aside by the banker, who considered them too risky in the absence of a business plan or market research deemed appropriate," says Eric Larpin. This explains why banks are reluctant to offer these savings products:

The player has to use default in the articles of figaro.fr. maj1


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Merkel Knights Draghi as the ECB

Thursday May 12, 2011

From our special correspondent in Berlin

The next governor of the euro will be Italian. Angela Merkel last Wednesday raised uncertainty by supporting square Mario Draghi, head of the Bank of Italy, to take over from Jean-Claude Trichet at the head of a European Central Bank very vulnerable in crisis debt.

"I know Mario Draghi. (…) It is very close to the German designs: a culture of stability and defense of a strong economy, "said the Chancellor to justify a rally, in an interview with Die Zeit.Less encumbered by the nuances, the tabloid Bild now boasts the qualities "Prussian" the Italian candidate, having long alarmed to see the euro for the first time given to a banker from the south of Europe.

"Super Mario" has much to do at the head of a central bank shifted from cautious role as guarantor of the single currency to a primary mission to extinguish the fire of sovereign debt. Jean-Claude Trichet will leave office Oct. 31, after eight years in Frankfurt. The European summit in late June formally appoint his successor. The first lap will be held on Monday at the monthly meeting of the Eurogroup of 17 countries.

Outsider

Unless dramatic turn of events, the dubbing of Angela Merkel made the decision. Mario Draghi, 63, finally gather serious advantages: discretion, meaning the state and international stature.It is also the patron of the influential Financial Stability Board, appointed by the G20 forum to propose safeguards against any repetition of the financial crisis.

Status remains the favorite yet tasty contrast to the former lieutenant of the investment firm Goldman Sachs. Nicolas Sarkozy, toasting politeness in Berlin, had given her support since April 26. But not without some gnashing of teeth on the French side, facing a candidate passed by the U.S. bank, a pillar of financial globalization today challenged.

On the German side, the Chancellor has raised the reluctance to five days of the deadline. It has long been an outsider, because of a passport tough sell in the German public.Before you turn tail, the Bild Zeitung explained to his millions of readers that Italy and inflation go together "like spaghetti and tomato sauce."

The tide has turned in February lorsqu'Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank and champion of orthodoxy, has created a stir by throwing in the towel. Since then, Germany has found no replacement candidate. Wednesday, Angela Merkel has drawn a line. She preferred a consensus candidate to a fratricidal competition, the ECB has no need.


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The World Bank is committed against soaring prices

Saturday Apr 16, 2011

Robert Zoellick sounded the alarm. "If food prices were not the direct cause of the crisis in the Middle East and North Africa, they have been an aggravating factor," said the president of the World Bank to finance ministers of the G20. Bank, the first institution of development assistance, including Global Food Price Index is an authority considers that prices have jumped 36% in one year. This surge affects most commodities, except rice, and drove 44 million people fall below the "extreme poverty".

The World Bank shares the objective of the French presidency of the G20 to fight against price volatility. As Robert Zoellick explained to Le Figaro, one of the first steps would be "a code of conduct on arms embargoes on the export of food products."It is indeed a constant temptation for producers, when faced with an accident of nature – like Russia, where grain fields have been ravaged by fires last summer – that restrict their sales. Causing a price rise. "At least it should be that embargoes do not apply to humanitarian organizations," Zoellick suggests.

Another avenue to explore "the creation of small stocks of food as humanitarian in areas where there are problems of infrastructure and delivery." Similarly, "it would be useful to have better information on stocks of products." Perhaps most iconoclastic, the former international trade negotiator for the Bush administration calls "that poor countries can use the techniques of risk management, to better cope with price fluctuations."These measures can of course substitute "to efforts to increase agricultural production, for which we are investing $ 7 billion per year," he recalls.

Giving assistance to Côte d'Ivoire

Robert Zoellick acknowledged that he must look beyond the growth rate, which sometimes give an overly flattering in developing countries: "It is a lesson of revolutions in North Africa and the Arab world fast cash. It is not enough to have a good economic policy which brings growth and inflation. If prosperity is not shared and if one fails to mobilize the energies, we will face the risk of revolt. "In Tunisia, it was discovered" a lot of frustrations with bureaucratic barriers to create a professional activity .Bouazizi Mohammed, who was not licensed to sell fruit and thus preferred to die, is emblematic. "

In addition, these countries are poorly integrated into the global economy. To their detriment, said Zoellick, "Take the case of Egypt, whose population is 80 million people, while South Korea has only 50 million. The Korean export more industrial products in a single week than the Egyptians in a year, says the boss of the World Bank. Similarly, if we compare the Vietnam and Algeria, two former French colonies that have experienced wars, Vietnam was inspired by what happened in neighboring countries to open up to foreign investment and create opportunities for its own contractors.Nothing like Algeria, which has yet oil and gas and enjoys an advantageous geographical location for trade with Europe. "

The World Bank says ready to finally bring relief to Cote d'Ivoire. "This is to establish institutions that hostile groups are found, and create emergency infrastructure for water, transportation, energy, said Robert Zoellick, citing the experience of his institution in this type of situation. Simple things such as garbage collection can show people that life back to normal. Besides financial support, with other partners, we must think about discounts on debts, which reach 1.4 to 1.6 billion dollars. "


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Shareholders and protesters shouted their anger at bosses of BP

Friday Apr 15, 2011

Bob Dudley the CEO, and Carl-Henrik Svanberg, Chairman of the Board of BP has suffered for more than three hours Thursday afternoon in London, a barrage of questions from disgruntled shareholders in general meeting (AG). The year 2010 was marked by the deadly explosion of the Deepwater Horizon platform followed by an oil spill is unprecedented in the Gulf of Mexico had nothing to be worried and angry small shareholders. "I lost a lot of my savings," and has complained about Martin, "shareholder since 1954. Like him, thousands of British pensioners have seen their incomes while the action BP has lost 30% in one year, to a low of more than 50% loss in late June. The restoration of a dividend after a suspension for the last three semesters was a small consolation.BP, which had $ 41 billion set aside provisions for dealing with the costs of the disaster last year posted its first loss since 1992.

Outside, a small delegation of fishermen from Louisiana victims of the spill, unable to attend the AGM held in London's Docklands, protesting. A Texan was even arrested by British police.

Traumatized by the oil spill, the shareholders, including the Indians of Canada, denounced the exploitation of oil fields by BP oil sands in Alberta and considered highly polluting. Bob Dudley noted that the basement contains the second Canadian crude reserves after Saudi Arabia.

Strategically, small shareholders have also expressed concern about the stalemate of the ambitious project of BP to exploit vast deposits of the Russian Arctic with the public company Rosneft.The alliance announced in January accompanied by an exchange of shareholdings of 16 billion is blocked by the shareholders of BP's Russian joint venture TNK-BP. While the new deal should be completed on April 14, Rosneft and BP have agreed to postpone by one month maturity.

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Schneider Electric denied making advances to Tyco

Wednesday Apr 13, 2011

Traders are convinced, Schneider Electric is about to start his tour in the waltz of mergers and acquisitions. Concordant sources, the industry group has approached Tyco International. Schneider Electric had made a bid of about $ 30 billion (about 20.76 billion euros) to encourage the Swiss group of safety and engineering to come to the negotiating table.

Information that contradicts this Wednesday, the group led by Jean-Pascal Tricoire. Management refutes indeed in a statement "to be currently in discussions with Tyco International over a possible strategic transaction." This does not mean that no discussions never took place.This is a formal response to rumors magnified the last three days about a possible interest of the French group to Tyco.

Now that he has denied being in negotiations with Tyco, Schneider Eclectric is forced by regulators to abandon any attempt for six months supply on the Swiss.

A Tyco spokesman confirmed to the press to have received an offer

The assumptions were yet in full swing this morning. And for good reason: this merger would make the new entity the world's leading security systems.

A Tyco spokesman confirmed to the Wall Street Journal that "the board is studying the proposal," he received with surprise. The Daily Telegraph said of his side as the board of Tyco has given the green light to a process of "due diligence" (consultative accounts).The two dailies ensure that JPMorgan and Bank of America Merrill Lynch attended Schneider Electric since September on this issue and that the most likely hypothesis was an offer in cash and securities.

Schneider Electric has even considered issuing the CEO Edward Breen of Tyco a seat on the board of the merged entity. But according to the Daily Telegraph, Tyco would not be willing to accept an offer below $ 65 per share.

At the NYSE, the title Tyco soared more than 7.4% to 52.33 dollars on the rumors and was thus valued at $ 24.8 billion (about 17.17 billion of euros). Conversely, in Paris, Schneider Electric has lost 3.5% to 112.90 euros per share, representing a capitalization of 30.70 billion euros.On two days, the title of the electrical equipment manufacturer has won more than 7.5%.

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Patrick Pelata, the dolphin sacrificed

Tuesday Apr 12, 2011

When the alleged espionage case was transferred to the handling villainous, Patrick Pelata, the deputy CEO of Renault, was sacrificed once to take the blame and protect his boss, Carlos Ghosn. "When the investigation is complete, we will draw all the consequences to the highest level of business is to say to me," he said in a March 4 interview with Le Figaro . Duly noted. This incredible adventure will put a stop to a stellar career that began at the manufacturer there are twenty-seven years.

For several years, Patrick Pelata, 55, has emerged as heir apparent right arm and his classmate Polytechnique in 74, Carlos Ghosn. Appointed Chief Operating Officer in October 2008, he assumed operational management of the entire company in crisis, leaving the CEO's long-term strategy.Previously, it had already become the number two official, adding his wake in the footsteps of his mentor.

Brilliant and unconventional

Grand son of farmers, the son of teachers from the Ariege, Patrick Pelata doing a brilliant classical route: preparation at Louis-le-Grand, Polytechnic, School of bridges and causeways, which he was president since 2009. Brilliant but unorthodox, the young engineer developed a passion for sociology. Postgraduate at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, he wrote a thesis on the development of Taylorism and Fordism in French factories. Communist activist, a brief on the working conditions of miners in the Pas-de-Calais earned him a week off to X, for violating the duty of reserve soldiers saving account payday loan.

At 29, the young executive at Renault. An avid robot, is foreman of the welding robots Flins.It is then in charge of the platform Twingo. When, upon redemption of Nissan, Carlos Ghosn asks about him that is ready to follow him to Tokyo, Pelata packed his bags. His expertise in industrial organization and the range of vehicles, as well as his hobby of sociology help contribute to the recovery of the Japanese manufacturer in disarray. When Ghosn took charge of Renault, he brings with him his right arm. This is one of the few members of his bodyguards at tu boss and contradict appropriate.

Since 2008, Pelata the helm, during the crisis of the automobile. It has launched a voluntary separation plan of 9000 people, handled the failures of the Laguna and Twingo 3 2 and reoriented the manufacturer to the cars of the future. Lucid, he was aware of the questioning of the status of the self in contemporary society.He acknowledged the responsibility of the industry in global warming and went all-out on electric vehicle programs, as alleged spies were supposed to have tried to hack.

When, a year ago, the government pin Renault, which plans to produce the new Clio in Turkey, the boss left Pélata defends the logic of cost reduction business. This fan of hiking and judo, father of four children, now paying an unfailing faithfulness.

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