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This is the number one concern of manufacturers in China: keeping the fast pace of market? Volkswagen, which wants to double its production capacity by 2013-2014, to 3 million vehicles, will build two new sites, bringing the total to eleven. Rival Nissan will expand its industrial base by 70% by 2012, to 900,000 cars. This level may nevertheless be insufficient, hence the interest group for the Korean Ssangyong sites in the land of Morning Calm, which would allow it to export to China.

After jumping 45% in 2009, thanks to state aid, sales on the world's largest market could grow 20% this year (they were up to fourth in six months). For the next five years, analysts at Nomura anticipate an annual increase of 10%.The market would then exceed – all vehicles – 25 million cars in 2015, against 13.6 million last year. "I expect a long period of growth in China. There is no reason why the rate of motor equipment does not reach that of France, "said Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan. China had 34 cars per 1000 inhabitants in 2008, against 600 for 1000 in France. Proof of the youth of this market: 60% of new car purchases are the first acquisitions made by elderly drivers average 35 years against 50 years in Europe.

With growth in volumes, manufacturers have emerged in 2009 on the market an operating margin of between 6 and 8%, according to the firm Alix Partners.They benefit from economies of scale related to the full factory utilization, and managed to impose price calculated to generate good margins. The German specialists of high quality rub their hands as their cars more luxurious than elsewhere, are selling much more expensive than in Europe.

Increased competition marks

The most successful brands have managed to adapt their cars to local tastes. This is what the French PSA Peugeot Citroen with its new Peugeot 408 and its future 508. Still small, French wants to increase its market share in China from 3.3% to 5% in 2015. All very ambitious, the conquerors of China, however, will face increased competition from local brands, specialized for the moment in small cars at low cost.Their market share could reach 37% in 2015, against 32% in 2009, according to Alix Partners.

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