Avalanche forecasts on the results of stress tests
Posted by admin | Under features, online, people, resources, world Sunday Jul 25, 2010For Goldman Sachs, which published its investigation on Friday morning, ten of the 91 tested banks will fail. That is to say it does not retain a sufficient level of equity in the event of deteriorating economic conditions.
The success rate would be 89%. According to the study of the American bank, the banks are based in Spain, Germany and Greece, which should raise the more capital, adding that the source of these funds should be half public and half private.
The newspaper El Pais reported in its edition today that part of the 18 Spanish savings banks failed the test of resistance.To believe the consensus reached by Reuters, in Spain, only seven banks have passed the exam, including the largest as Banco Santander, BBVA, Banco Popular, and the "Cajas".
That success expected for French banks
In France, banks found – BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BPCE (Natixis) – should all pass. The analysts and Christine Lagarde have confidence.
Full house expected also for the United Kingdom, examined on HSBC, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group. In Ireland, Bank of Ireland and Allied Arish Banks also would reach to get good results.Same as in Italy, with Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit and Banco Popolare including headlining.
In Germany, a handful of banks should be in a situation of failure, particularly those that are undergoing restructuring.
Failure: it will recapitalize
According to Goldman Sachs, European banks should raise an average total of 37.6 billion euros in fresh capital as a result of these stress tests, whose results are expected Friday at 6:00 p.m., after the close of European stock markets but in full session on Wall Street.
In search of capital, these banks 'risk' may first explore to their shareholders or to appeal to financial markets no fax payday advance. If this is not enough, she can turn to state aid at the national level.Finally, as a last resort, they can "take advantage" of the famous European support plan put in place at the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Confidence in the results, distrust Performances
With a success rate approaching that expected of the baccalaureate, the question is what will truly value the conclusions of these stress tests. Experts warn that it would be better to consider the assumptions made when simulating a situation worsened.
"The information currently circulating in banks suggest that the stress test favors disclosure of a satisfactory result compared to a real and solid technical verification," says Pierre-Antoine Dusoulier in a forum.
These data suggest that in fact the test cases would be fairly "light" in particular in the field of defaults on sovereign debt. Assumptions of the macroeconomic developments would also be applied "without knowing it for the moment the link established by the test between GDP growth, unemployment and inflation."
In addition, past forecasts on macroeconomic parameters were simply struck by the actual conditions. In spring 2008, the European Commission expected a growth of 1.7% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009 for the euro area. Real growth was 0.45% in 2008 and -4.1% in 2009.
Pass the exam stress test is a bit like having your bachelor's degree with an overall average just over 10/20. This is not the best conditions for its future.